Experts expect a higher inflation worldwide than at the end of 2024. A survey by the IFO Institute among 1,489 economic experts from 131 countries resulted in an inflation rate of 4 percent for the current year.
It should come even worse, because the survey ran in March and thus before the latest customs announcements by US President Donald Trump. Even then, the experts were expecting a significantly worse development inside for the United States than, for example, in Western Europe.
“The US experts already expected significant increases in inflation in North America in March,” says IFO expert Niklas Potrafke. “In doing so, they will have already priced in. Some also assumed that Trump only threatens. Now he has created hard facts and increased the tariffs much more than expected. This was surprising to this extent.” The consequences are clear: “It can be assumed that inflation is increasing significantly more than in March – especially in the USA.”
Hope for insight at Trump
Specifically, the experts had expected an inflation of 3.2 percent in the United States for the current year in the survey, which took place between March 11 and 25 March. That was 0.6 percentage points more than at the end of 2024. For Western Europe, the expectation in March was 2.1 percent and thus unchanged at the end of 2024. However, these values should now be outdated and are higher, as Potrafke says.
Insight on the part of the US President could help. “It remains to be hoped that the massive reaction of the exchanges of Trump will move to a spa correction.” In the days since the big customs announcement, the stock exchanges are with short interruptions on a downhill trip, which continued on Wednesday.