The Dutch population is growing rapidly, mainly due to immigration. It is still uncertain whether the increase is an exceptional explosion or whether the Netherlands must prepare for a continued strong population growth.
The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimated the population size at the end of December for this year at almost 17.6 million, the migration balance at 122,000. However, that was not counting the war in Ukraine and the increasing migration of asylum seekers. In the first nine months of this year, the Netherlands has already reached a population of 17.8 million, a migration balance of 188,500.
The population grew in the first three quarters of 2022 more than twice as fast as in the same period last year. In total, the population increased by 191,000 people, also through births. Population growth is largely due to migration, about 30 percent of which is from Ukraine. Without the Ukrainian war refugees, the migration balance at 102,500 would still be much higher than last year.
The figures are difficult to compare with the two previous years, says researcher Tanja Traag of Statistics Netherlands. After all, because of corona, there was drastically less travel. “It is not entirely clear whether the current increase is a catch-up, a short-term explosion, or a permanent population increase.” That’s quite important. “It is about the question of whether the Netherlands should take far-reaching measures to cope with a continuing population growth.”
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According to Traag, a crucial question for the coming period is: “How permanent is the presence of Ukrainians in the Netherlands?” According to the CBS, 97,000 Ukrainians have now fled to the Netherlands. The refugees are mainly young women, many of whom have no children. They often start working here immediately, find a job and perhaps even a partner, which considerably increases the chance of permanent settlement, demographer Jan Latten estimated earlier. There are uncertainties surrounding their stay, such as the duration of the war and the state of the country once the conflict is over.
“We haven’t had refugees from relatively close by for a while,” says Traag. Most of the refugees during the Yugoslavia war (1991-2001) returned relatively quickly. “We don’t know if that will also be the case with the Ukrainians.”
The Migration Advisory Council recently cited a Swedish survey that showed that a quarter of Ukrainians wanted to emigrate before the Russian invasion. The cabinet had better take into account that the Ukrainians will stay here for a longer period of time, the Advisory Council concluded. “In light of the housing shortage, it makes a difference whether you all need a permanent place to live for Ukrainians,” says Traag.
That’s not all. In addition to the increase in Ukrainians, the CBS sees an increase in other groups, such as labor migrants from India and asylum seekers from Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan. And although normally only about 5 percent of immigration is accounted for by asylum seekers, they do make considerable demands on the stock of rental housing.
Housing shortage
Due to the housing shortage, about 17,500 recognized refugees are in an asylum seekers center or emergency shelter. The action plan to transfer status holders to other housing at an accelerated pace is still not going very well. There is a huge housing shortage. Asylum seekers with residency status are given temporary priority now that Minister Hugo de Jonge (Public Housing) wants to assign them one in eight social rented homes. Nevertheless, the number of status holders in reception is increasing.
The influx of asylum seekers has not been this high since 2015. This year, the number of first asylum applications will probably amount to about 35,000, State Secretary Eric van der Burg (Asylum) said in the House of Representatives last week. Then there is the lack of reception capacity. Of the 51,000 shelter places, 21,000 are emergency shelters or crisis places. Those “shouldn’t really be there,” said the VVD minister.