In fact, since 2015 – when the Paris climate agreement was concluded – global temperature forecasts have dropped significantly. While it was assumed at the time that warming would be almost 4 degrees by the end of this century, it is now around 2.3 to 2.5 degrees.
That is still far above the target 1.5 degrees, but it shows that the downward trend has started in many countries.
EU managed to reduce emissions
The UN report is published on the day that the debate in the EU about a new climate target for 2040 reaches a boiling point. This report shows that the EU is already a green leader – albeit partly at the expense of industry disappearing and being restarted elsewhere.
Of the six largest emitters worldwide (about 6 percent of global emissions occur in Europe, 94 percent outside Europe), the EU was the only one that managed to reduce its emissions in 2024. Within the G20, Europe is also doing relatively well, with an expected decrease of 0.6 gigatonnes of CO2 by 2035.
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However, emissions are still rising worldwide. In 2024, total greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3 percent, mainly due to deforestation and additional land use. China, responsible for about 30 percent of global CO2 emissions, together with India accounted for the largest absolute increase, the report found.
Climate summit in Brazil coming up
The researchers express their concerns towards the upcoming climate summit in Belém, Brazil, where ironically parts of the rainforest are now being cut down to make room for the conference. New climate plans have largely failed to materialize: only sixty countries, together accounting for 63 percent of emissions, have so far submitted plans for 2035.
These plans are also described as vague, often without concrete investment details.
The fact that the United States, under the leadership of President Donald Trump, has once again withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, is of concern to the UN committee. According to the researchers, this has a measurable negative effect of approximately 0.1 degrees on global temperatures.
Trump left the Paris climate agreement. © Getty Images
1.5 degrees almost certainly exceeded
Yet there are also bright spots. If countries fully implement their current plans, emissions will fall by 15 percent in 2035 compared to 2019. However, to stay below 1.5 degrees of warming, a decrease of 55 percent is needed.
The UN Climate Commission warns that the 1.5 degree limit will almost certainly be exceeded. In the most optimistic scenarios, maximum warming just below 2 degrees still seems feasible. Governments are therefore called on to do more on climate policy.
The Netherlands focuses on adaptation
Whether these agreements will actually be made will become clear during the climate summit that starts this month in Brazil. The Netherlands is represented there by various ministers, including outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof. EU leaders Ursula von der Leyen and Wopke Hoekstra are also traveling.
Ursula von der Leyen. © ANP/HH
Outgoing Minister Sophie Hermans (Climate and Green Growth) previously announced that the Netherlands is committed to more ambition in the new climate plans, including tripling the generation of green energy and phasing out fossil subsidies.
The Netherlands also focuses on ‘adaptation’: sharing knowledge about water management, making agriculture more sustainable and more climate financing, especially for poor countries.