Economist: Inside, the aggressive customs policy of the United States sees a severe burden on the German economy and warn another year in the recession.
“The United States has occupied around 80 percent of all German goods exports to the USA with an inch of at least 20 percent,” said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank on Monday. The economist still has hope that the damage to the German economy can be kept within limits through negotiations between the EU and the US government. However, if the negotiations “do not do anything, however, there is a risk of recession again this year,” said Krämer.
Robin Winkler, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, referred to the recently decided reform of the debt brake, which had ensured a better growth forecast. However, it will take some time for the Union and SPD financial package to have a full effect. However, if the announced US tariffs prove to be permanent, they should slow down the economic development. “Overall, the economic risks for 2025 are tilted towards a third year of recession in a row,” warned Winkler.
In general, the strongly export -dependent German economy is particularly sensitive when it comes to stress. Therefore, Germany will suffer from a escalating trade war, said Thomas Gitzel, chief economist of VP Bank. In his opinion, the recession continues to threaten if there is no negotiation success with the United States.
Despite the billion -dollar financial package, the short -term prospects for the German economy, according to Carsten Brzeski, chief economist of ING Bank, have repeated. The coalition talks between the Union and SPD in Berlin should therefore not only concentrate on the implementation of the infrastructure package and structural reforms, but, if necessary, also consider short -term support measures for the economy.