Sometimes, for a brief moment, the war in Gaza replaces navel-gazing in the election campaign. International outrage arose this week when images of Israeli attacks around Gaza hospitals dominated news channels. Then through NRC An analysis from the Dutch embassy in Tel Aviv was leaked stating that the Israelis were deliberately using “disproportionate force”, a number of parties in the House of Representatives wanted to interrupt the election recess for a quick debate. Could the outgoing cabinet still support this approach? Why was there no Dutch call for a ceasefire? These are urgent questions about the Dutch position that cannot wait now that the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza is worsening every day.
You would think.
A majority in Parliament thinks differently. The debate is scheduled for a very symbolic date: Thursday, November 23, one day after the elections. The official reason: the outgoing cabinet needs more time to answer parliamentary questions. The image that remains: one’s own troubles first, the world’s problems will come later.
The Netherlands will elect a new House of Representatives next Wednesday, in the midst of two major wars at the European external borders (Gaza, Ukraine) and numerous major international issues such as climate change and migration. And yet abroad is not a major election issue. The major TV debates so far have mainly focused on domestic topics such as housing, healthcare and inflation. Climate and migration do occur, but are mainly linked to domestic problems. For example, many (centre) right parties say: migration must be limited due to the housing shortage.
Housing market
Anyone who looks at what the voter finds important will understand that political parties do not make foreign countries the spearhead of their campaign. Voter surveys in recent weeks show that voters find the housing market, health care and high prices particularly important, and precisely these themes were also mentioned in the NRC Neighborhood Survey published last weekend, for which the newspaper spoke to 336 voters. Tamara Nieuwersteeg from Oost-Souburg summarized the sentiment nicely: “Dutch people should start counting again, not abroad.” She will vote for the PVV, Geert Wilders is ahead in the polls with his message “Dutch people come first again.”
When foreign countries appear in debates, it is often in a negative sense or based on the idea that the policy is completely ‘feasible’, as Judith Sargentini, former European parliamentarian for GroenLinks, sees, for example, in discussions about migration. She mentions the plea of SP party leader Lilian Marijnissen in this campaign for a complete stop on labor migration, while this is not simply possible due to the free movement of people within the EU. “Marijnissen then says: we should stop doing that. While you function within the EU, the Netherlands cannot simply withdraw from agreements. It is annoying for national politicians to have to say: I will not discuss it or only to a limited extent. Abroad nuances and complicates issues, making issues more complex. That is not a popular message.”
Polarizing
The war in Gaza presents another problem for parties: the discussion about it is extremely sensitive and polarized. But the conflict clearly has a domestic impact: in recent weeks there have been large pro-Palestinian demonstrations in many Dutch cities, and Jewish Dutch people have reported increasing anti-Semitism.
Yet it is not a major election issue for the vast majority of voters, according to recent research by I&O. For only four percent of voters it plays “a major role” in their vote choice. This percentage is considerably higher at 24 percent among Dutch people with a non-Western immigration background.
It is therefore logical that Denk is campaigning heavily on the conflict: party leader Stephan van Baarle wears a Palestinian pin, and on social media the Denk logo has been merged with the flag of Palestine. According to I&O, 55 percent of Denk supporters appreciate the party’s commitment to the Palestinian cause. Right-wing parties, such as the PVV and the VVD, used the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7 to express support for Israel, but they are keeping a more low profile now that the Israeli approach to the Gaza war is increasingly under fire.
The only party leader of the major parties who is happy to speak out about the war is Frans Timmermans of GroenLinks-PvdA. With his extensive experience abroad, Timmermans is trying to come across as the ideal successor to Mark Rutte, who also operates internationally with authority. However, Timmermans has the problem that some of his own supporters, especially GroenLinks members, find his position on Israel too inarticulate, says Han ten Broeke, former MP for the VVD and now political director of the think tank HCSS (The Hague Center for Strategic Studies). “I think that when it comes to Israel, he is very smart and solid in his statements. But the fact that I, as a VVD member, think that is also a problem for him.”
Foreign policy is relevant for whoever becomes prime minister, but the subject is not decisive in a campaign, says Ten Broeke. “You don’t win elections abroad, not even Timmermans. You can lose cabinets with it, and Timmermans knows that better than anyone.” Ten Broeke is referring, among other things, to the fall of the Balkenende II cabinet: the PvdA, where Timmermans was then a Member of Parliament, did not want to extend the military mission in Uruzgan, and the cabinet fell because of this. An Ipsos survey last month shows another problem for Timmermans: more Dutch people consider the VVD to be the so-called ‘issue owner’ when it comes to international politics, possibly the Rutte effect. GroenLinks-PvdA comes in second place, but Timmermans is actually only popular with left-wing voters, and much less so with other voter groups.
With the current polls, a (center) right cabinet after the elections is a serious option. The foundations of Dutch foreign policy could then come under pressure. VVD party leader Dilan Yesilgöz wants to cut billions on development cooperation and does not rule out the PVV in advance, while this party still wants a referendum on a Nexit and calls the EU in the election manifesto an institution that “is taking on more and more power, consuming taxpayers’ money.” and imposes dictates on us.” Pieter Omtzigt is considerably milder with the New Social Contract, but is also critical of the functioning of the European Union. NSC is “not in favor of one ever closer union” and wants the Netherlands to act “constructively but realistically” in the EU context, “without creeping transfers of tasks, powers and budgets that erode national sovereignty.”
Ukraine
This Eurosceptic sentiment has been contradicted by few this campaign, with the exception of Volt leader Laurens Dassen. At the beginning of this month he lashed out at Omtzigt in NRC. “Of the eighty pages in his election manifesto, one is about Europe. And what does he propose? That each national parliament is given veto power, making Europe ungovernable.”
Omtzigt did not provide a substantive response that same day, but called it “very positive” that Dassen is “breaking open” the debate about Europe. And further: “I can also imagine such a debate about Europe during the European elections.”
While the future of the EU is perhaps a more logical topic for the European campaign for next June’s elections, even the war in Ukraine – even more so than Gaza – is completely absent from the campaign. This while the obvious support in EU countries and the United States is decreasing, now that Ukraine is militarily unable to quickly reconquer the territory occupied by Russia. The fact that Ukraine is not discussed at all also has to do with Gaza, says HCSS director Han ten Broeke. “A terrible battle has been going on near the city of Avdiivka for weeks, which would normally fill the talk show tables, but Ukraine is completely overshadowed by Gaza.”
Ten Broeke finds the lack of discussion about Ukraine “a huge loss”, because he thinks that Ukraine determines the future of Europe much more than Gaza. “Subsistence is the magic word of this campaign. You can also include that in this. This war, on our own continent, is crucial for our way of life and the security architecture in Europe for generations to come.”