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The War against IranPresident Donald Trump claims, will soon be over. Despite a recent incident in the Strait of Hormuz that Trump dismissed as a “slap,” both sides declare the ceasefire valid – even if negotiations are on thin ice. The war, which has now been going on for well over two months, could end without the Iranian regime being toppled and with Tehran continuing to dominate the Strait of Hormuz. The government calls this a victory.
“I think we won,” the president said on Wednesday. “Now we have to get what we have to get.”
But what the US wants to get may simply be impossible – and that means this conflict will end in something less than victory.
CIA contradicts Trump
The material realities of the past two months of war tell a story that is diametrically opposed to the narrative of the president and his administration. On Thursday, the Washington Post reported that internal CIA estimates showed that Iran’s military capabilities had survived weeks of American bombing raids largely unscathed: 75 percent of its mobile missile launchers were still intact, as were around 70 percent of its ballistic missile inventory. That’s in direct contradiction to Trump’s statement on Wednesday that Iran’s supplies were “mostly destroyed” and that Iran “probably has 18, 19 percent left – but not much compared to what they had.”
Trump’s main leverage against Iran – aside from full-throated threats to bomb the country back to another era – has been the damage he has and will inflict on the Iranian economy. But the new CIA report also contradicts this: Iran’s economy is robust enough to survive the US blockade for up to four more months. And even the crown jewel of Iran’s military objectives – the nuclear program – appears largely intact; recent reports suggest that the current campaign has caused little new damage.
Of course, the actual performance of the United States in this war cannot be judged as easily as a game based on points. Robert Farley, senior lecturer at the University of Kentucky’s Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, tells Rolling Stone that on a tactical level, the U.S. soldiers who actually fought the war are probably happy with what they accomplished. “There is a lot of operational and tactical pride in the U.S. military,” Farley says — soldiers would say, “We did that, with very few casualties, and we did a lot of damage.”
Questions without answers
But that doesn’t mean that the military has lost sight of the big picture of the war.
“In the Navy and the Army, people ask a lot of questions: ‘Why did we do that? What did we accomplish? And what did we change so that the Middle East isn’t just as dangerous in six months?'” Farley says. “I don’t think there’s a really good answer. No matter how good we were, we didn’t solve a single problem.”
“I wouldn’t say we lost,” Farley added, “but we certainly didn’t win.”
The best possible scenario at the moment would probably be that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz are restored to essentially the same as they were before the US-Israeli attack on Iran. The ongoing negotiations appear to be heading toward an agreement that would commit Iran to reopening the strait and postpone the more difficult questions surrounding its nuclear program until later. Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that Operation Epic Fury was “over” and that the US wanted the road reopened so the world could “return to normality”.
Israel’s other agenda
However, this future has two glaring problems. First, under no circumstances will the Trump administration admit that it lost out. But the second problem is even more dangerous: the third actor in this war, says Farley, has different goals than the United States. While Trump’s war goals always remained vague, the Israelis acted far more aggressively. They don’t just want the Strait open again – they want what Trump failed to deliver: a real dismantling of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, an end to Iranian support for militias worldwide and even complete regime change. “I wouldn’t be surprised if they play some kind of disruptive role in future negotiations,” Farley says.
And that’s nothing new. For years, Israel has targeted not only high-ranking Iranian officials, but especially those who were responsible for negotiations with the United States and other countries – thereby openly sabotaging diplomatic agreements. Even if the Trump administration reaches a deal with Iran, that does not guarantee that Israeli forces will permanently respect it: the first ceasefire in April did not stop Israel from launching a devastating wave of attacks against Lebanon.
Of course, the Trump administration will not concede any of this. If a more robust, formalized ceasefire eventually occurs, Trump will declare total victory. But lasting peace will be difficult to find. “War is meant to achieve a better peace,” Farley said, quoting military theorist BH Liddell Hart. “But I don’t know if we have a better peace for anyone involved.”
The prospect: more war
The future therefore looks like more war.
