Black Friday and its numerous global offshoots are no longer the shopping phenomena they once were. Participation remains high, but enthusiasm is waning.
According to new data from British market research institute YouGov, 35 percent of British consumers say they are less interested in big sales than they were a few years ago. The reasons for this are revealing: 63 percent cite misleading discounts, while another 43 percent say that the novelty value has simply disappeared. A fact that is not lost on customers outside of Great Britain.
For an industry that has long viewed the era of discounting as inevitable, this shift marks a critical moment. It was seen as a mixture of cultural ritual and accounting necessity. If shoppers tire of flash discounts, where will retail go?
The answer may lie in loyalty.
From transactional to relational
The data underscores a deeper fatigue: a growing skepticism about sell-offs as a measure of value. The endless barrage of “up to 50 percent off” has eroded trust and trained consumers to expect constant discounts. In this environment, loyalty programs are quietly becoming retail’s strongest corrective.
By shifting the focus from one-time discounts to long-term value, brands can appeal to the 63 percent of customers who no longer believe in the discounted price. The best loyalty initiatives reward engagement, not just spending. They build credibility where promotions sound hollow today. They also give brands something far more lasting than a quarterly increase in sales: emotional connection.
The cross-generational opportunity
YouGov data also reveals a demographic insight that retailers cannot afford to ignore. Gen Z and Millennials remain the most active shoppers during these events, with participation rates of 52 and 48 percent respectively. At the same time, they are also the most brand-conscious and digitally savvy consumers. They recognize inauthenticity immediately, but respond very positively to personalization and exclusive privileges.
Brands such as the French cosmetics retailer Sephora, the US sporting goods manufacturer Nike and the US coffee house chain Starbucks have already shown this. Their loyalty programs offer early access, exclusive products or special community experiences – and can surpass flat discounts. It’s not just about saving money, it’s about belonging. For a generation that grew up online, that feeling can be more valuable than a discount.
The dividend of first-party data
Beyond engagement, loyalty has become a strategic advantage in an era of stricter privacy regulations. With the disappearance of third-party cookies, the ability to collect and use first-party data through membership programs is fundamentally changing retail marketing.
Technology products may top purchasing intent in the fourth quarter (52 percent), according to YouGov, but the real competition is around insights. Retailers use loyalty programs to personalize offers – be it a targeted promotion, an in-store event or a member-exclusive collection. This allows retailers to use their marketing budgets more efficiently and connect with customers on their own terms.
A future after the sellout
The irony is that sell-offs still have an impact – at least mechanically. They drive volume, clear inventory and revive balance sheets in the short term. But in a market where customers have become cautious and weary, loyalty, not discounting, will define the next phase of sustainable growth.
As retailers look ahead to the fourth quarter and beyond, the question isn’t how deep a discount can go. The crucial question is rather: how deep can a relationship grow?
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