The young, mild-mannered and centrist politician-preacher James Talarico (36) may try to win a Senate seat on behalf of the Democrats from the all-powerful Republicans in the southern state in November. That is the outcome of the hard-fought primary race held on Tuesday. Talarico defeated nationally known, left-wing, outspoken Rep. Jasmine Crockett (44) by about 7 percentage points.
The so-called ‘primaries’ in the second most populous state in the US (31 million inhabitants) have recently received a lot of national attention. The choice between Talarico and Crockett was explained as a disguised referendum on the course that the opposition party must choose to defeat President Donald Trump’s party in the Congressional elections this fall.
The key word in the campaign was ‘electability’. Do the Democrats have a better chance with a moderate candidate like Talarico, who can also appeal to disappointed Republicans and independent voters? Or should the party opt for a mediagenic firebrand like Crockett, who can mobilize a progressive, culturally diverse coalition of voters in an election where turnout can be a deciding factor?
Both Democratic camps invested tens of millions of dollars in this primary battle and voters ultimately went for the middle option.
Hoping for a turnaround
Democrats have been hoping in vain for an electoral turnaround in Texas for years. They assumed that, due to the growing number of Hispanics, the state would slowly change from a deep-red (Republican) state into a purple state, where the ‘blue’ Democrats also have an electoral chance. That dream shattered when Latino voters switched to Trump and his party on a large scale in 2024. Mainly out of dissatisfaction with high inflation and the chaos at the southern border under Democratic President Joe Biden.
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Especially now that the economy is disappointing for many and its anti-immigration policy is harsh, the Democrats hope to win back this voter bloc. Tuesday’s results map shows that Talarico performed very strongly in districts where many Hispanics live. This appeal will also be felt in others by the moderate wing of the party primaries will be appointed.
Second round needed by Republicans
Whether Talarico has a serious chance of winning a Senate seat in the Republican stronghold of Texas will partly depend on his opponent. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn was challenged in the Republican primary by Ken Paxton, the controversial, right-wing populist attorney general of Texas, and by Representative Wesley Hunt. Cornyn and Paxton both obtained approximately 41 percent and will continue to battle it out in a second election round in May.
This conflict also revolves around ‘electability‘ and the direction of the party. Cornyn is a mastodon, dating back to the time long before Trump took control of the Republican Party ten years ago. Although Cornyn usually votes loyally with the party in Washington, he has sporadically criticized the president.
This makes him a ‘RINO’ for the MAGA movement Republican In Name Only). For example, he worked with Democrats on gun legislation after a school massacre in Texas. After the 2020 presidential race, he also dared to endorse Biden’s election victory, which Trump falsely claimed was the result of ballot fraud.
Democrats have been hoping in vain for an electoral turnaround in Texas for years
Paxton has represented the right-wing populist voice within the party – since the beginning of this century, first in the state Congress and for the last eleven years as Minister of Justice. However, Paxton has been surrounded by corruption scandals, which could make him controversial among moderate and independent voters. Moreover, he is currently going through a divorce, with his ex-wife accusing him of adultery. This could be an obstacle for strict Christian voters.
In polls held early this yearCornyn seems to have a slightly better chance against Talarico than Paxton, but there is not much difference. The disadvantage for the Republicans, however, is that Cornyn and Paxton now have to raise tens of millions of dollars for their campaign for the second round of elections. They will attack each other hard over the next two months, which could potentially increase Talarico’s chances.
Republicans are going to have a hard time
In addition to the Texas seat, the Democrats also hope to be able to wrest a seat in North Carolina in November from the current Republican majority (53 to 47) in the Senate. This traditionally red state is increasingly considered a popular destination due to the immigration of highly educated and black voters swing states. The Democrats therefore think they have a good chance of winning the seat of outgoing Republican Senator Thom Tillis. On Tuesday, as expected, they appointed the popular former governor Roy Cooper for this. The centrist Democrat won two terms in a row, in election years (2016 and 2020) in which Trump did win the presidential race in the state.
On Tuesday, an election in Arkansas showed how difficult it could be for the president’s party in November. The Republicans lost an open House seat. In this district around the state capital Little Rock, Kamala Harris narrowly defeated Trump in 2020, with a difference of just 2 points. On Tuesday, the Democrat won convincingly, with a difference of 15 points.
This fits in with a national trend. In the 92 elections held at the state level since Trump won, Democrats have performed an average of 13.1 percent better than in November 2024. according to a calculation from electoral news site The Downballot.
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