In the past, the DAX marked lows in March 2003, March 2009 and March 2020 as a result of recessions. There are currently mixed signals: Ifo index, DAX price-earnings ratio and pessimistic professional investors speak in favor of buying shares. On the other hand, the increasingly restrictive US monetary policy and ambitious profit margin expectations advise us to wait and see. The bear market is likely to continue. So is history repeating itself and investors see the DAX recession low again in March?
The DAX marked recession lows in March 2003, March 2009 and March 2020
In the past 20 years, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has declared a recession for the US economy three times. The first recession lasted from March 2001 to November 2001, the second from December 2007 to June 2009 and the third from February 2020 to April 2020. These economic crises in the world’s largest economy regularly caused significant corrections on the stock markets. Finally, there were very promising buying opportunities for DAX investors. It is noticeable that these large buying opportunities appeared regularly in March. March 12, 2003, March 6, 2009 and March 18, 2020 were each the low points in a recession-driven DAX bear market (see Chart 1).