ABSTRACT: At the end of the week, not only the SMA200 but also the SMA20 was abandoned. The reset went pretty much exactly to the SMA50. With the move, the chart picture in the index has clouded over significantly. As long as the DAX is trading below the SMA20, there could be further taxes that could go as far as the SMA50. If there is no recovery in the area of this line, or if the line is started with dynamics and momentum, it could go further down to 15,545/35 points or 15,460/45 points.
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Current DAX analysis on September 2nd, 2023: chart analysis, Weekly Outlooktrading setups and more – for active day traders
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DAX framework conditions:
The US jobs data fell on Friday mixed out. The US unemployment rate rose comparatively significantly from 3.5% to 3.8%, which is still a value that signals full employment. It added 187,000 jobs in August, ahead of forecasts and ahead of July growth. Markets had been betting on slightly weaker data on the assumption that the Fed could be more hesitant about next rate hikes. Since the stock markets had already picked up in the last few days, a lot has already been priced in. Investors took the US jobs data as an opportunity to close positions.
In the morning, reports from China had supported the market. The Chinese government is planning further measures to support the ailing real estate sector. It should be written that there have been measures in the past, but all of them somehow fizzled out or didn’t bring the desired effect. In this respect, it remains to be seen whether the activities really catch on. In our view, the fact is that Chinese consumers have lost confidence. Whether this psychological momentum can be corrected by these measures can at least be questioned. On the other hand, you have to consider the size of the Chinese real estate market. It is estimated that 65 million homes, or 20% of homes, are vacant. Many of these homes were bought speculatively, which has worked well in the past and led to wealth. This mechanic no longer works, growth has reached the limits.
DAX review: (08/28/2023 – 09/01/2023)
The DAX went into pre-market trading on Monday morning at 15,784 points. The index is thus 164 points above the first pre-market quotation on Monday morning of the previous week and 63 points above the weekly close on Friday evening of the previous week. The DAX initially gave way until Monday noon, and in the course of this formatted the weekly low. On Monday afternoon things gradually continued to improve. The upward movement continued on Tuesday. There were losses during early trading on Wednesday morning, but these were already able to stabilize in the morning. However, the recovery that followed was not particularly pronounced. Buying pressure did not set in again until Thursday, bringing the DAX to and above 16,000 points. However, the bulls subsequently failed to set the index above this mark. Parts of the gains were already given up on Thursday afternoon, on Friday there was widespread weakness, particularly in the afternoon, which brought the index back up to around 15,850 points. The DAX went to 15,885 points from the weekly trade. Nevertheless, the weekly performance remains an increase of around 1.3%.
The weekly high was above the previous week’s level and above the 16,000 point mark. The weekly low could also be formatted above the level of the previous week. The range was slightly larger than in the previous week. A weekly profit could also be reported in the past trading week, the 22nd in this trading year.
On the upside, we had expected that the DAX would reach our maximum target of 15,990/92 points by exceeding the 15,977/79 point mark. This movement has set in, the maximum start-up target has been reached and clearly exceeded, the setup didn’t fit. The setbacks, on the other hand, went exactly to our next target on the bottom at 15,703/01 points by falling below the 15,715 point mark.
DAX – How could it go on:
DAX resistances
- 15,949/58/59
- 16.014/20/70
- 16.121
- 16,244
- 16,312
DAX supports
- 15.844/39/19
- 15.721/10
- 15,611
- 15.545/35/23
- 15,448
DAX chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that the DAX has been able to move upwards again in the last few trading days. It went over the SMA20 (currently at 15,839 points) and from here to the SMA50 (currently at 16,020 points), on which the index has been stuck in recent trading days. The bulls failed to establish the index above the SMA50.
As long as the DAX does not manage to settle above the SMA50 at the end of the day, there could be further levies that could go as far as the SMA20. If the support does not hold and the index re-establishes itself below the SMA20, the chart picture would cloud over, further deliveries would be conceivable and possible, which have the prospect of running into the SMA200 area (currently at 15,523 points).
If the move is successful at the end of the day via the SMA50 and if the DAX can also move north quickly, it could continue to rise towards the high for the year.
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): neutral
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The 4-hour chart shows that the Dax initially ran above the SMA50 (currently at 15,844 points) and then above the SMA20 (currently at 15,959 points) and was subsequently able to establish itself. In the following upward movement it went up to and just above the SMA200 (currently at 16,014 points). Despite repeated attempts, the bulls failed to fix the index above this average line. In our daily timetables, we had repeatedly pointed out the relevance of this average line in particular.
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At the end of the week, not only the SMA200 but also the SMA20 was abandoned. The reset went pretty much exactly to the SMA50. With the move, the chart picture has clouded over significantly. As long as the DAX is trading below the SMA20, there could be further taxes that could go as far as the SMA50. If there is no recovery in the area of this line, or if the line is started with dynamics and momentum, it could go further down to 15,545/35 points or 15,460/45 points.
Rebounds could initially set in as far as the SMA20. If this line is taken, it is necessary to move over the SMA200 again. Whether the move will materialize remains to be seen.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): neutral
Conclusion: the DAX has to cross the 50-day line at the end of the day and establish itself. If this succeeds, things could go up again towards the high for the year. If, on the other hand, the index settles below the 20-day line at the end of the day, it could go further down in the direction of 14,730/10 points and in the direction of 14,410/390 points.
- Probability of bull scenario based on our setup: 45%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 55%
Assessment for the new DAX trading week:
Long setup: the bulls may initially try to keep the DAX above the 15,885 point mark. If successful, it could continue up to our next targets at 15894/96, 15909/11, 15922/24, 15935/37, 15949/51 and then 15958/60 points. Above the 15,958/60 point mark, the DAX could reach our next targets at 15,970/72, 15,982/84, 15,996/98, 16,010/12, 16,024/26, 16,038/40, 16,055/57 16,070/72, 16,083/85, 16,098/100, 16,110/12, 16,121/23 and 16,135/37 points.
short setup: if the DAX cannot stay above the 15,885 point mark, the bears would have the opportunity to take the index to our next targets at 15,873/71, at 15,859/57, at 15,844/42, at 15,832/30, at 15,817/15 , at 15804/02, at 15791/89, at 15777/75, at 15763/61 and then at 15749/47 points. Below the 15749/47 mark it could continue down to our next targets at 15737/35, at 15723/21, at 15710/08, at 15699/97, at 15683/81, at 15670/68, at 15656/54 , at 15,640/38, at 15,626/24, at 15,613/11, at 15,599/97 and at 15,584/82 points.
Overall expected DAX trend in week 36 / 2023:
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