In view of the soon expires for higher US tariffs on EU goods, investors are again focusing on the trade dispute in the new week.
With a win from 0.44 percent to 24,109.15 points, the DAX got into the new trade week. At the moment, however, he cannot defend the surcharges and loses something.
Dax record remains away
However, a new record for the German leading index remains even far away: On June 5, the DAX had reached a new all -time high after the European Central Bank’s decision -making decision at 24,479.42 points. On this day he also achieved a new record on the final course basis at 24,323.58 points.
Dax in the slipstream of the US exchanges
Jürgen Molnar from the Broker Robomarkets sees the Dax “only in the shadow of the Wall Street”, because the stock exchange car now remains primarily green in New York. Here, some of the US exchanges are one step ahead, because there have long been records on the subject. The DAX still lacks something at 24,479 points.
Index radar also sees the US stock market “on the fast lane”, supported by growing interest reduction fantasy and the weak US dollar. The European Community currency has now reached its highest level over the $ 1.17 brand since 2021, and according to the Robomarkets expert Molnar, this tends to be a brake block for German exporters.
“There is therefore a lot to suggest that the stock market party in New York continues, but the Dax can be happy that he can get around a correction thanks to this tailwind,” he continued in his comment. Experts speak of a correction in the event of a clearer reset in an otherwise intact upward trend. With a 20 percent annual plus, the DAX is currently well there.
Customs are again the investment topic
“If Washington comes again from Washington, this should not be grown to expectations and thus the mood noticeably,” wrote the experts from the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg. A solution has to be found by July 9, because then US President Donald Trump wants to put up with even higher tariffs. There is now a certain confidence in the US trade dispute, because with China, the USA concluded an agreement and in the trade conflict with the EU, the United States has now presented a new offer.
In the customs dispute between the EU and the USA, July 9th with Donald Trump’s ending customs break is moving closer. European companies then face 50 percent of their exports to the United States.
Iran war moves into the background, interest and the economy
In the Iran Israel conflict, a few days ago with the ceasefire and a round of negotiations aimed at by US President Donald Trump about the Iranian nuclear program. The oil prices sank, the share prices attracted. The focus of the Börsians is therefore more of the megatrend of artificial intelligence, NATO’s output destinations and Germany’s infrastructure plans. In addition there is the topic Monetary policy With the hope of soon -to -date interest reductions in the United States.
Signals, as is the case with the US economy and thus also the scope for action of the central bank Fed, should deliver economic data. On Tuesday and Thursday, the ISM shopping manager indices for the US industry and the service industry will be on the agenda. The monthly labor market report will also be presented in the United States on Thursday, because on Friday the usual Friday of the “Independence Day” gives the Americans a long weekend.
Expert Hans-Jürgen Delp from Commerzbank sees the clear focus on the US job report, in which he expects a structure of 110,000 jobs. The situation of the starting situation at the last major interest rod in September 2024. Perhaps driven by the pressure that President Trump exerts, the likelihood that the Fed will turn the interest screw this year. According to the DZ Bank, the majority of the market is expected to cut two interest on the market in September and December.
In Europe, the data focus is likely to be on figures on the development of consumer prices in June, which will initially be released in Germany on Monday and on Tuesday at the euro zone level.
Redaktion finanzen.net / dpa-afx