The valuations of copper mining companies have increased significantly. Despite growing inventory, analysts at RBC Capital Markets continue to see upside potential.
• Global copper inventories had grown by almost 60 percent to 1.2 million tons by the beginning of March
• Around 600,000 tonnes of copper were stored in the USA in 2025 in anticipation of possible tariffs
• RBC expects supply deficits to grow in the coming years
Higher valuations through reallocation to real assets
The multipliers in the copper sector have expanded noticeably after a volatile start to 2026. As Investing.com reported on March 7, 2026, citing an analysis by RBC Capital Markets, the investment and corporate banking arm of Royal Bank of Canada, EV/EBITDA valuations based on spot prices have increased by around 20 percent since December 2025. Price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) multiples increased by around 10 percent over the same period. RBC attributes this development in part to a so-called “halo trade”: investors are increasingly seeking exposure to raw materials and other real assets.
The price of copper has increased 14 percent since the beginning of the year up to the time the RBC analysis was published. Meanwhile, a record high of $6.48 per pound was reached before prices fell. At the time of analysis they were trading at around $6.10 per pound. This rally took place despite a rise in inventories: they had grown by almost 60 percent since the beginning of the year to around 1.2 million tonnes, according to RBC. According to investing.com, the bank attributes this increase in part to seasonal factors and declining demand at high price levels.
Bring forward effects from US tariffs as a possible burden
A key driver of inventory buildup is in the United States. According to RBC, around 600,000 tons of copper were stored there in 2025 in order to forestall possible import duties. According to an analysis by Goldman Sachs on January 23, 2026, the US investment bank expects to announce a 15 percent tariff on refined copper by mid-2026, with implementation expected in 2027. Goldman Sachs warned that clarification of the tariff issue could trigger a price correction as investors’ focus would then turn back to global oversupply. In 2025, the global copper market experienced an oversupply of 600,000 tons, according to Goldman Sachs.
If the stocks built up in the USA are exported back to the global market at a later date, this could put additional pressure on prices. Despite these risks, RBC remains constructive on the copper market, citing expectations of growing supply deficits in the coming years as well as a potential recovery in Chinese demand, according to investing.com.
Inconsistent performance among producers
There is a mixed picture among copper producers. According to RBC, companies such as Lundin Mining, HudBay Minerals and Freeport-McMoRan had significantly outperformed the market by the time of analysis in early March 2026, in part due to their higher exposure to precious metals and company-specific factors. Capstone Copper, First Quantum Minerals and Ivanhoe Mines, however, fell short of expectations due to weaker forecasts, operational challenges or uncertainties in individual projects. Despite the gains to date, RBC sees further potential for valuation expansion as the sector’s free cash flow outlook improves and mining stocks continue to trade at a discount to the broader equity market, it said.
Dominik Maier, editorial team at finanzen.net
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