A new survey from the consulting firm Zuban Córdoba exposes the state of the political situation with a clarity that is uncomfortable for the ruling party: 57% of Argentines declare that they would never vote for Javier Mileiwhile disapproval of his management climbed to 64.5%. At the same time, 71.2% of the population considers a change of government necessaryalthough without yet being able to identify who should lead it.
The picture that emerges from the study is not simple for any of the actors in the political system. Although the rejection of the President is forceful, levels of distrust towards opposition figures are also high: 23.2% affirm that they would never vote for Victoria Villarruel, 21.3% express the same about Sergio Massa and 20.1% about Mauricio Macri.
At the level of the “safe vote” – that is, those who already have a firm preference -, Villarruel leads with 23.2%closely followed by Massa with 21.3%, Macri with 20.1%, Patricia Bullrich with 18.1% and Axel Kicillof with 16.3%. Milei barely reaches 12.7% in that indicator, the lowest of the group.
By expanding the look at the “probable vote”, the distances are compressed and the scenario becomes more disputed: Bullrich reaches 56.4%, Milei 57.2% and Macri 56.8%while Massa gathers 44.3%, Villarruel 44.9% and Kicillof 43.8%. The compression of these numbers indicates that no leader manages to detach himself conclusively of the rest.
Fragmentation also dominates projection by forces. In one scenario, the Peronism (PJ – Fuerza Patria) gathers 28.4% compared to 22.1% of La Libertad Avanzawith 27.2% who have not yet defined their vote. In a second hypothesis, parity is maintained—30.5% for the PJ and 23.9% for the ruling party—and the undecided climb to the top. 31.7%.
The reading of the survey is clear: the demand for change exists and is broad, but lacks driving. That 71.2% that demands a change in course does not yet have a leader or space to condense their expectation. In that vacuum, whoever manages to order the opposition offer before the 2027 elections could gain an advantage that is difficult to reverse.
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