In 1992, the idea of holding Summits for Climate Change began to take shape in the world: a global movement to take care of everyone’s home—our planet Earth—in the face of the problems that we ourselves generate as a civilization, from the desire to produce at very high industrial levels, constantly releasing smog and gases, and pouring solutions into the rivers and seas. The first of those summits was in Rio de Janeiro, where some guiding principles moving forward were established. At COP3, held in 1997 in Japan, the Kyoto Protocol was issued, from which systems of rewards and punishments were established, and the different countries were classified by groups. Our country was awarded the status of least influence in terms of pollution levels.
Until the Paris summit in 2015 (COP21), we were one of the main architects of reaching 2030 with fewer polluting influences in South America—which in fact suffered a decrease in that influence—until at COP26, held in Glasgow, the objectives were reestablished. In the last change of government in December 2023, and in conjunction with the non-entry to the BRICS, it was decided from politics that Argentina would reduce its intervention in the following COPs. So, before the summit that begins on Monday, November 10 in Brazil (returning to the origin of all this), our country will be represented by officials of the 4th/5th level in importance in foreign relations.
With what was expressed in the previous paragraph, and together with the breakdown of trade relations with China, the Government shows that it does not understand geopolitics: the places that we leave free are occupied by the United States, which is neither more nor less than an economy that is fully competitive with ours in all economic sectors. With the cooling of relations with China, Donald Trump himself asked that the Chief of Staff of Ministers be fired because he spoke too much with Chinese officials, just at the moment when the US finished negotiating with Xi Jinping for China to sell soybeans for a total of US$ 20,000 million – about 35% of our total annual exports – and on top of that offered a credit of another additional US$ 20,000 million. Translating: not only did they not receive those US$ 20,000 million, but on top of that they tried to put us in debt for another US$ 20,000 million, which generates a difference of US$ -40,000 million against our economy. This places us in a situation of economic colonization, in line with what JFK established in the ’60s: that in the coming world the war would occur due to the economy and not due to war. After the resignation of the JGM, the PEN paralyzed Chinese works on dams in progress at 90% of their completion, even those projected; Therefore, in the near future we will have a claim before the ICSID for another US$30 billion that the US is not going to give us, because it surely wants China to build infrastructure works in its own territory. The advantage of Chinese works in our country, beyond their execution, is that they involve transfer of cutting-edge technology, to which today we do not have access due to the very high level of over-indebtedness left by the Minister of Finance and the President of the BCRA in the period 2016-2018, Luis Andrés Caputo.
Returning to the original topic: the climate summits made possible a way out of the over-indebtedness established in the agreements of May and August 2018 for a total of US$ 45,000 million, which was already refinanced to begin paying in 2026. We never talked about the negotiation conceived in April 2025, because it was never approved by the National Congress and that makes it completely illegal, for which they will have to respond – even to the Justice—who were in charge of signing it. Our country has a lot of potential to generate Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM), which provide non-refundable funds that could have been used to pay off the leonine debt with the IMF—which also had interference in the policies dictated by our own country—and only be left with the restructured debt with international bondholders, which is fully payable. With that we would once again have full economic-political sovereignty, without the need to subject the entire population to a useless sacrifice in which they are losing savings generated in the last 20 years, since until 2005 we were paying for the horrors generated by the economic policies that were from 1989 to 2001.
Today Brazil has close to 500 MDL and Argentina fell from the 40 it had in 2023 to levels of non-existence, with the impossibility of accessing freely available funds. The supreme level of ineffectiveness and ineptitude of the current administration is demonstrated, once again. This type of knowledge is acquired, in principle, in postgraduate and master’s degrees taught in our country from 2005 onwards, to which is added the experience acquired by the professionals who trained in them.
FABIAN MEDINA
Economic and tax analyst
