The threat of state actors for the Netherlands remains high and the chance of sabotage actions has even grown in recent years. This is what the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD), the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) and the National Coordinator of Terrorism and Security (NCTV) write in a published on Thursday Threat image statutory actors (DSA).
In the previous DSA at the end of 2022 The security services found that Dutch security is increasingly being threatened by other countries, such as Russia and China. “No threat has decreased,” the services now write. In fact, the threat of disruptive sabotage actions by state actors has increased.
The security services speak of “a turbulent time in which international relations become more unpredictable”. Examples are the wars in Ukraine and in Gaza and the ‘under pressure’ relationship between Europe and the United States. “All these events also affect the Netherlands and our national security interests. In some cases they touch the Netherlands directly and in other cases there is an indirect or dormant threat for which our country must watch.”
Russian threat
The greatest military threat still comes from Russia. “Although firm investments in NATO fighting power in Europe, Russia has temporarily taken a military lead.” In the scenario that is most favorable for Russia, the AIVD, MIVD and the NCTV write Russia, after the possible end of the war against Ukraine, needs “only one year” for a “limited military operation” against NATO member states. “For Russia, Western and Russian security interests are contrary and incompatible.”
Although the security services write that no examples are known in the Netherlands of physical sabotage actions by state actors, they have discovered “preparatory actions from Russia”. Sabotage has potentially the greatest impact on Dutch society, because it can lead to “social disruption, disruption of vital infrastructure, disruptions of military operations or preparations for this and economic damage.”
Train failure during NATO top
Possibly the major malfunction that during the NATO top is an important part of the train traffic in the Randstad, a first example of sabotage by state actors in the Netherlands. The investigation into this has not yet been completed, but outgoing minister David van Weel (VVD) of the judiciary and security did not exclude it. “It could be an activist group. It could be a different state. It could be anything.”
The image sketched in the DSA is in line with an inventory of 2024 by Leiden University. It showed that there was a strong increase in Russian operations in European countries last year, and that they were also more aggressive in nature. In return for NRC Said Bart Schuurman, professor of terrorism and political violence, that the Netherlands must take into account sabotage of public facilities, such as power plants or water facilities. “That is much more likely than a conventional attack by Russia.”
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