Two interesting matches will be seen in the final round of the Gold Cup group stage.
Race favorite Canada has its back against the wall. PDO
The most interesting game of the day
The Gold Cup has progressed to the final games of the initial groups. Canada, which entered the games as the favorite of its group, has its back against the wall against Cuba.
Canada has indeed been much quieter than expected. Below are two draws, the first one against Guadaloupe was fairly fair, but in the game that ended 0-0 with Guatemala, Canada was more subdued in terms of play and really struggled in the attacking third. Tempofutis has not bitten as expected.
Canada has recently become known for their tight defensive play and efficient attack. In these games, especially with efficiency, they have been badly stuck on the racks. Tactically, the team is flexible and able to play according to the opponent from different field formations.
You can also modify the way you play, and it doesn’t matter if you have a lot of the ball or a little under your control. In CONCACAF games, the Canucks have typically been able to create high-anticipated scoring chances. Canada is particularly good at fast attacks against disorganized defenses, meaning they hit hard from turnovers with tempo moves and vertical passes and moves.
Cuba is clearly the loser of the group and has lost its match with a goal difference of 1–5. In the 0–1 loss against Guatemala, Cuba was able to create a goal expected of 0.1 in front. Against Guadeloupe, the score was 1-4, but in this game the expectations were almost equal, so the picture of the match did not match the final result very well. Cuba has used both 4–2–3–1 and 4–3–3 formations, the first of which will probably be the choice for this encounter. Striker Aldair Ruiz is sidelined due to suspension.
The starting points of the match are clear: Canada is facing a must-win, Cuba has nothing left to play for. Thus, Cuba can go into the game with an open mind and bravely challenge the early favorites when there is nothing to lose.
Canada overtakes Guatemala on equal points by beating Cuba, so even a draw in the second final match of the group does not destroy the continuation seams. Everything is in your own hands, but it should be done now.
Canada has won six of the teams’ previous meetings and has conceded just one goal in each. The level difference between the teams is big. Canada is in the conductor’s place in the game and sets the tempo of the match. Patience is important, because Cuba will certainly defend with self-sacrifice. The level difference should finally do its job.
Canada deserves an 86 percent favorite position. I rate ten points for a draw and four points for Cuba’s victory. The goal expectation value rises high, to around 3.60. With these estimates, Veikkaus’ odds won’t make it to the games, but a very interesting match is ahead – can Canada raise its level at the last moment? The most likely final results of the game are 3–0, 2–0 and 4–0.
The match starts at 1:30.
The best betting tip of the day
Gold Cup also has the best bet idea of the day. Costa Rica must beat Martinique to qualify for the playoffs, while a draw is sufficient for Martinique.
Costa Rica has been an absolute disappointment in these games. The bad mood that started at the World Cup has continued and there have been particularly big problems in the attack end and in ball play in general.
Scoring is excruciatingly difficult. The team is known to be able to defend, but in the light of the performances and data seen so far, the points balance earned would be exactly two. Mentally, “Los Ticos” are not in a good place.
Martinique, on the other hand, used its “momentum” against El Salvador and deservedly lost to Panama. Martinique will certainly come into this game with a good defensive attitude. Tactically, it could be a very good idea to force Costa Rica to control the ball, because that’s how sticky the opponent’s possession has been. Of course, it’s a different matter how active Costa Rica wants to be. With ball control, the team would not reach the comfort zone.
When the starting points of the match are taken into account, all the pressure is on Costa Rica. It has to score and win. If the game goes even longer, it has to open up the game, which in turn opens up big spaces for Martinique to counterattack. The teams met in the continent’s League of Nations in March this year. At that time, Costa Rica took a narrow 2–1 victory.
Costa Rica is not quite as good as in recent years due to retirements and the team lacks “middle-aged” players. There are young and experienced people in the ranks, but not many 24-29 year olds. Costa Rica’s mood is bad. Of course, the basic level difference is in the team’s favor, but I don’t count Los Ticos as big favorites as Veikkaus.
In a pressure game on a neutral field, I rate Costa Rica as a 56 percent favorite. I estimate 25 pins for a draw and 19 pins for Martinique. In the 1X2 market, the draw goes directly to the limit coefficient of 4.00, while the coefficient has been lowered in Martinique’s victory. My limit coefficient for the event is 5.26, so there is still a small advantage, but the expected value does not rise to a hintable value.
In Asian leveling, the return is pushed down so much that there is only a marginal advantage. The Martinique +1 coefficient is 1.73, while Arvioni’s event has 58 pins and the limit coefficient is 1.72. This handicap is more appropriate, but the expected value is better offered in Martinique’s victory. If you really want to play, I recommend playing the underdog with a small bet and sharing the risk with a small slice of handicap.
The match starts at 3:30.
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