The Bundestag election 2025 could significantly influence not only the political landscape, but also the economic future of Germany. In particular, decisions by the future government should have a noticeable impact on various industries and companies in the financial markets.
• Bundestag election is imminent
• Overview of the economic policy issues of the parties
• Effects on individual industries depend heavily on the election result
You should know that before the election
In November 2024, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the dismissal of finance minister Christian Lindner, whereupon the FDP left the traffic light coalition. As a result, Scholz asked the question of trust in December, but lost the vote. This led to the dissolution of the Bundestag and to advance the Bundestag election, originally planned for September 2025, to February.
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The upcoming choice, which will take place on February 23, 2025, is the focus of investors and political observers. In view of the tense coalition negotiations and an increasingly dynamic voter mood Financial markets have.
As ExtraEtF explains, over a third of the German investors in the Union of the CDU and CSU see the greatest competence to overcome the ongoing economic doldrums in Germany. This was the result of a representative survey that the European online broker XTB carried out in cooperation with the Civey opinion research institute. Around 2,000 investors were interviewed in the period from December 10th to 26th, 2024.
The parties want to do that for the economy
But what do the individual largest parties actually want to do for the economy? The Tagesschau recently dealt with this question. However, the economic policy approaches of the only parties show significant differences.
The SPD rely on cheaper electricity prices by being capped to three cents per kilowatt hour. In addition, the party is planning an investment premium of ten percent to encourage companies to invest in new machines and devices. This premium is to be calculated easily via the tax return. The focus is also on electromobility: E-cars are to be freed from vehicle tax by 2035.
The Union from CDU and CSU wants to reduce energy prices by reducing electricity tax and the network charges. In addition, the parties take a return to nuclear power. In order to relieve companies, the tax burden should be limited to a maximum of 25 percent. The solidarity surcharge should be completely abolished and bureaucratic regulations such as the supply chain law should be repealed. To strengthen the labor market, the Union relies on tax -free overtime surcharges and incentives for longer working in old age.
For the Greens The focus is on the conversion into an ecological economy. Similar to the SPD, they want to make electricity cheaper through lower taxes and levies and make it easier to produce energy. An investment premium of ten percent, but limited to five years, is intended to stimulate companies to expand their infrastructure. In order to combat the shortage of skilled workers, the Greens plan the introduction of a digital immigration agency that simplifies the application process for labor visa.
The FDP places the “economic turn” at the center of its program. It relies on less government interventions and more trust in entrepreneurial action. Subsidies are to be reduced, state investments are sold and taxes reduced. In addition, the liberals advocate a return to nuclear power and the approval of fracking to ensure energy supply.
The AfD pursues a radical market liberal approach. The party calls for the complete abolition of CO2 levy, the return to nuclear power and the resumption of gas imports from Russia to reduce energy prices. At the same time, the party wants to promote Germany’s exit and abolish the euro as a currency.
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The left focus on social policy and an active state economic policy. The state is intended to take on a stronger control role and invest 200 billion euros in the climate -friendly conversion of industry. The party also calls for stronger taxation of rich and the reform of the debt brake to finance investments.
The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) sees energy policy as a central lever to strengthen the economy. The party is in favor of a withdrawal of the heating law and the ban on combustion and calls for gas imports from Russia. Public investments are to be made possible by new loans, while capital income should be taxed more to promote investments in companies.
So the result on industries, DAX, stocks & Co.
And how exactly could future government scenarios affect the market? Forex.com, the choice could have a significant impact on the German stock markets, depending on the outcome of the election and the resulting political orientation. A scenario analysis is intended to show how three potential government constellations could affect various sectors and their key companies.
In the first scenario a union -led coalition is considered. Such a government would probably pursue an economic-friendly center-right agenda that relies on stability, investment incentives and reduction in bureaucracy. Planned measures such as lower corporate taxes and a tightly regulatory environment could strengthen the trust of investors. Companies such as Volkswagen could benefit in the automotive industry, since a predictable economic policy and investments in infrastructure promote both traditional and green technologies. The technology sector, especially SAP, would benefit from consistent support for digital transformation. The financial sector could also benefit: Deutsche Bank, for example, could be strengthened by a moderate regulatory policy and stable monetary policy framework. All Dax values that could move according to the leading index.
The Second scenario describes a political landscape that is characterized by a strong performance of the AfD. Even if a government participation of the party seems unlikely, its influence could lead to more protectorist and more nationalist tendencies. Possible consequences would be stricter immigration controls, a withdrawal of certain EU integrations and a focus on the internal market. Especially export -oriented companies such as Volkswagen and Siemens faces challenges here, since commercial barriers and bureaucratic hurdles could make international sales difficult. SAP could be under regulatory pressure in the technology sector, since increased national control could restrict free data traffic. The financial sector, especially Deutsche Bank, would have to prepare for increased market volatility and an uncertain regulatory future.
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The Third scenario includes the effects of a progressive government coalition under SPD and the Greens. This constellation would probably advance the expansion of social programs, climate protection measures and digital transformation. To finance these projects, higher corporate taxes and stricter environmental and data protection requirements could be introduced. The episodes in the automotive industry would be mixed: Volkswagen would have to adapt to stricter emission regulations, but could benefit from state support for the expansion of electromobility. Siemens would benefit from investments in green technologies and infrastructure, even if initial adjustment costs could arise. SAP should also benefit because the Digitization should be promoted in the public sector, but at the same time would have to expect stricter data protection requirements. The financial sector, on the other hand,, including Deutsche Bank, would be faced with stricter regulatory regulations and possibly higher tax burdens.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the Bundestag election 2025 will probably ensure considerable market uncertainty. Investors should therefore carefully pursue current surveys, political developments and potential coalition negotiations in order to identify risks at an early stage and to make suitable adjustments in their portfolios, for Forex.com continues.
Editor finance.net
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