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Mike McGlone presents a gloomy outlook for Bitcoin but also other cryptocurrencies. At the time, he predicted a Bitcoin price of $10,000.

• Bitcoin as a replaceable asset among many others?
• Focus on structural strength and uniqueness
• Many arguments don’t work


Bitcoin as a bird among many

McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, saw Bitcoin heading to $10,000 in January. One argument he put forward in an interview with Cointelegraph on January 23, 2026 was that the crypto market was reaching a phase of exaggeration. From a few thousand coins in 2020 to almost “30 million”. For him, Bitcoin is no longer a special case, but rather “a pigeon among many”.

McGlone argues using an analogy: Because the crypto market exploded from a few thousand coins (2020) to millions, Bitcoin has lost its special status. The sheer volume of competing coins devalues ​​Bitcoin’s unique selling point, similar to a rare bird becoming a common animal in a crowded dovecote. But does this view correspond to reality?

McGlone’s argument that more coins devalue Bitcoin has an intuitive appeal is challenged by three arguments.
The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, explicitly argues the opposite in its official white paper: “Bitcoin’s nature as a global, decentralized, limited-supply and non-sovereign asset has risk and return drivers that are fundamentally different from traditional asset classes and are fundamentally uncorrelated on a long-term basis.” For BlackRock, Bitcoin is not a generic coin among millions, but rather a structurally separate asset class.

If “30 million coins” really diluted Bitcoin, its market share would have to be close to zero. Instead, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin holds a dominance of 58.4 percent (as of June 22, 2026), meaning over half of the total crypto market capitalization is concentrated in a single asset.
The institutional market sorts even more clearly: Bitcoin ETFs accumulate, according to data from coinglass (as of June 18, 2026), 93.23 billion US dollars. Ethereum follows with $21.41 billion and Solana with $1.84 billion. The capital of professional investors therefore makes a very clear distinction.

In the interview, McGlone compares cryptocurrencies to precious metals. This comparison clearly shows the weakness of his argument. He says: Gold is unique because there are only four (important) precious metals. But gold is unique not because of the absence of competitors, but because of its physical properties. Exactly the same applies to Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s characteristics, fixed cap of 21 million units, global digital accessibility and decentralized, permissionless structure make it a unique monetary system.

The existence of 30 million other coins does not structurally affect these properties, just as the existence of plastic stones does not dilute the value of gold.
McGlone’s argument is thus rhetorically effective but analytically weak. It confuses quantitative competition with qualitative substitutability. The market data (58 percent dominance, $93.4 billion AUM) and institutional research (BlackRock) clearly speak against it.

Further arguments from McGlone

McGlone also bases his forecast on four other technical and structural arguments. He sees the falling 200-week averages of Bitcoin and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index as a clear bearish signal. For him, the historically high correlation to the stock market means that a decline on the stock exchanges affects Bitcoin disproportionately, around three times, weighted for volatility. He does not see the ETF launch as a signal of departure, but as a classic warning signal: As soon as an asset becomes mainstream, the trade is over. And the narrative of Bitcoin as protection from the financial system has become obsolete since Trump and large institutional investors themselves are part of the crypto ecosystem. A look at current data and historical comparisons shows that not everyone is holding up.
Bitcoin’s 200-week average has been regularly above the price level since January 2026, and McGlone was correct here. However, the indicator does not serve as the sole signal for a movement from around $64,000 (as of June 22, 2026) to $10,000. A decline of this magnitude would require fundamental shifts that a moving average can neither explain nor predict.

When it comes to the correlation thesis, the picture is more complicated. The correlation between Bitcoin and US equities fluctuates widely, data from Coinglass shows. However, it can be clearly seen that the S&P 500 rose sharply over the last six months while Bitcoin fell. A picture emerges that undermines McGlone’s thesis: the stock market is rising, but Bitcoin is still falling.
The thinnest argument is that the ETF launch is the classic signal that a trade is over. McGlone’s much-vaunted asset, Gold, of all things, refutes this. According to CoinDesk, the price of gold has risen from around $332 to $1,800 since the launch of the first gold ETF in 2003, an increase of over 400 percent. Today, there are 35 gold ETFs on U.S. exchanges with $105 billion in cumulative assets under management, according to CoinDesk. The ETF launch was not the end of the trade, but rather the beginning. McGlone can’t argue that an ETF launch ends a trade while at the same time praising or at least condoning the same trade in gold, an asset that has had ETFs for over two decades and has seen strong gains since then.
The fourth argument doesn’t go far either. McGlone claims that the narrative of Bitcoin as a protection from the system has been invalidated since Trump and major institutions became part of the ecosystem. But investing in Bitcoin doesn’t change the protocol. BlackRock states in its official research that Bitcoin, as a decentralized, non-sovereign asset, remains structurally independent of individual states or institutions, which is precisely what makes it interesting for investors. The network belongs to no one, not even Trump or BlackRock.

Markus Maier, editorial team at finanzen.net


This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.

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