Bayer Leverkusen enters the last third of the season as league leaders with a large lead. In the middle third, VfB Stuttgart has established itself, Werder and Union have made up a lot of ground. The trio at the end has a lot of catching up to do.
The number 34, which corresponds to the number of Bundesliga match days, has only a few divisors. The only sensible one to take stock of is 17, i.e. the end of the first half of the season.
There is no such thing as a smooth third of the season, but if the mathematicians are turning a blind eye, now is the time to consider the situation before the final third. The Bundesliga offers a picture that not only mathematicians would have thought was hardly possible, because FC Bayern Munich is eight points behind league leaders Bayer Leverkusen. The Munich team were very happy that there weren’t even more thanks to Harry Kane’s late goal in the 2-1 win against RB Leipzig.
Leverkusen only lost eight possible points
Leverkusen is the measure of all things. Coach Xabi Alonso’s team has 61 points, only eight more would have been theoretically possible. Since Bayern lacked the chance to reduce the deficit in a direct comparison in the last third of the season, it would take a slump of historic proportions to prevent the “Werkself” from winning their first championship.
Bayern can take it as a small consolation that they are almost certain to qualify for the Champions League again. The lead over fifth place in the table is already 13 points, which could also be enough for the European elite league. For this to happen, the Bundesliga must continue to score strongly in European cup competitions. VfB Stuttgart is therefore becoming a big fan of its pursuers Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, who are currently still represented in the Champions League.
VfB increases lead with draw against Cologne
After 23 match days, VfB is seven points ahead of fifth place and 13 points ahead of sixth place. The Stuttgart team can live with the small setback caused by the draw against 1. FC Köln, because the competition from Dortmund and Leipzig lost respectively.
| Association | Gates | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Bayer Leverkusen | +16 | 27 |
2. | FC Bayern Munich | +3 | 21 |
3. | VfB Stuttgart | +7 | 20 |
4. | Werder Bremen | +4 | 19 |
5. | 1. FC Union Berlin | +1 | 18 |
6. | Borussia Dortmund | +10 | 17 |
7. | RB Leipzig | +2 | 17 |
8th. | 1. FC Heidenheim | +2 | 17 |
9. | Eintracht Frankfurt | +1 | 16 |
10. | VfL Bochum | -4 | 15 |
11. | Sc freiburg | -4 | 15 |
12. | Bor. Mönchengladbach | -2 | 12 |
13. | FC Augsburg | -5 | 12 |
14. | 1. FC Cologne | -6 | 11 |
15. | TSG Hoffenheim | -5 | 10 |
16. | VfL Wolfsburg | -4 | 9 |
17. | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | -6 | 7 |
18. | SV Darmstadt 98 | -10 | 4 |
Eintracht Frankfurt even celebrated their tenth draw of the season, but only because the equalizer was achieved in stoppage time. Dino Toppmöller’s team has been treading water for weeks, and that is exceptionally good news for the Hessians. They finished the first half of the season in sixth place in the table and are still in that position, even though they only won one of the six games in the second half of the season.
Sixth in the table with only eight wins
Eight wins are enough for Frankfurt to finish sixth, which was last achieved after 23 match days in the 2005/06 season. Two years later, VfB Stuttgart was sixth at the same time with twelve wins.
Eintracht benefits from the fact that SC Freiburg is weak and only occupies 17th place in the second half of the season. Hoffenheim may have turned things around with the 3-2 win in Dortmund, having previously not won nine games in a row.
Change of coach at Union Berlin with the hoped-for effect
If the mathematicians actually turn a blind eye and consider eleven matchdays as a third, the middle third – matchdays 13 to 23 – has the same standings as the current overall standings – Leverkusen ahead of Bayern and Stuttgart. In fourth place comes SV Werder Bremen, in fifth place is 1. FC Union Berlin, where the change of coach has had the hoped-for effect.
Only in the following places come Dortmund and Leipzig, tied on points with 1. FC Heidenheim. The promoted team has been staying out of the relegation battle for months.
Eight points gap between table 15th. and Relegation place
At least from the worst of it, VfL Bochum is 15th in the table. His lead over 1. FC Köln in 16th place is already eight points. But there are cautionary examples of crashes and catch-ups, including from the recent past.
In the 2020/21 season, Werder Bremen was eleven points ahead of the relegation place after (turn a blind eye) two thirds of the season, but was ultimately relegated straight away. It was similar at Fortuna Düsseldorf in the 2012/13 season.
The current trend at 1. FC Köln gives cause for hope, and not just because of the draw in Stuttgart. Cologne won two games in the middle third and only lost four. In terms of the number of defeats, they are equal to FC Bayern.