Belgium-Wales, the prediction: even without Lukaku as favorite hosts

On the one hand the race for first place that would be worth qualifying for the Final 4, on the other the need for points to avoid relegation. The match between Belgium and Wales, scheduled for Thursday at 20.45 at the King Baudouin stadium in Brussels, will be important in determining the fate of the two teams in this edition of the Nations League. On the penultimate day of group D, the two national teams are respectively second and fourth: Belgium are three points away from the Netherlands and Wales three from Poland, the two challenges of the group will be simultaneously.

How the two teams arrive

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At present, therefore, Belgium would not reach the Final 4 (they only pass the first of each group) and Wales would be relegated to League B. There is a need for points, with a look at what happens in the other challenge. And maybe there will then be the conditions to witness the showdown on the last day, when Belgium will visit the Netherlands and Wales will host Poland. Roberto Martinez’s team, who will not be able to rely on Romelu Lukaku, comes from seven points won in the last three games, while Robert Page’s national team won only one point in the group, right against Belgium in the first leg (1-1 with goals from Tielemans and Johnson).

Previous

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The match last June was the number 16 between Belgium and Wales and certified the balance that historically exists between these two teams: the balance is in fact 6 wins to 5, with 5 draws. The two national teams had recently faced each other on the occasion of the qualifiers in Qatar 2022, with the 3-1 for Belgium and the 1-1 in the return: considering everything, therefore, we arrive at the challenge with two consecutive draws. Wales did not win from the Euro 2016 quarter-final match, a surprise 3-1 that led Gareth Bale and his teammates to play for the semifinal.

The tip: 1 + Goal

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The underdogs are therefore on the side of Belgium, which is scary even without Lukaku: Martinez can count on De Bruyne, Tielemans, Meunier, Mertens, the two Hazards, Courtois in goal. The sign 1 is probable, but it can be combined with the Goal: in the last four preceding, both teams have found the net. The odds are 3.40 for Bet365, 3.30 for GoldBet and Better, 3.20 for Sisal.

Quotes

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For the bookmakers, Belgium is the clear favorite of the Thursday night match. The sign 1 is given at 1.40 by Snai and Bet365, at 1.39 by Novibet, at 1.37 by Sisal; Wales’ success is instead proposed at 8.50 from 888Sport, Betfair and LeoVegas, at 8.00 from Sisal. A draw is more likely, with the odds of 4.90 for LeoVegas, 4.80 for GoldBet and 4.75 for Sisal. For operators, Over 2.5 is more likely than Under: the first solution is given at 1.80 by Betfair and Bet365, 1.78 by LeoVegas; the second at 2.07 from LeoVegas, 2.00 from Betfair and 1.95 from Sisal.