Francesco Bagnaia can prematurely become world champion in the premier class for the first time in his career at the Malaysian Grand Prix next weekend. It would be Ducati’s second riders’ title in MotoGP after Casey Stoner in 2007.
It is already clear that Bagnaia has managed to catch up the most since the current points system was introduced in 1993. The biggest comeback so far was Suzuki rider Joan Mir in 2020.
At one point, Mir was 48 points behind the championship leader. Marc Marquez (Honda) was already 37 points behind in 2017 and 30 in 2013. Marquez became world champion in both years, as did Mir in 2020.
After the Sachsenring, Bagnaia was 91 points behind Yamaha spearhead Fabio Quartararo. With two races to go, Bagnaia now has a 14-point lead over Quartararo and 27 over Aleix Espargaro (Aprilia).
For Bagnaia to become world champion in Sepang, the following scenarios would have to arise:
- Bagnaia wins and Quartararo is not on the podium
- Bagnaia finishes second, Quartararo doesn’t get better than seventh and Aleix Espargaro doesn’t win
- Bagnaia is third, Quartararo is no better than eleventh and Aleix Espargaro is not on the podium
- Bagnaia is fourth, Quartararo is no better than 14th and Aleix Espargaro is not on the podium
- Bagnaia is fifth, Quartararo doesn’t collect championship points and Aleix Espargaro isn’t on the podium
Other decisions could also be made in Malaysia. Enea Bastianini (Gresini-Ducati) has a 32-point lead over Johann Zarco (Pramac-Ducati). If Bastianini is 25 points or more ahead after Sepang, he is the best driver in a satellite team.
On the other hand, Pramac is 81 points ahead of Gresini, with a maximum of 90 World Championship points still to be awarded in the team classification. It is therefore becoming apparent that Pramac will once again be the best satellite team in the annual standings.
Ducati has a 53-point lead over Yamaha in the team standings. This title is also within reach for the Italians. When it comes to designers, Ducati has been the world champion since Aragon.
In the Moto2 class, Ai Ogura theoretically has his first opportunity to become world champion. His lead over Augusto Fernandez is 3.5 points. Ogura would be World Champion in Sepang if he wins and Fernandez finishes no better than 13th.