It seems difficult to control the circulation of the HIV virus. Once again, the number of Dutch people with an HIV infection is increasing. That it turns out from an estimate published on Thursday by the HIV Monitoring Foundation (SHM). An HIV infection is not the same as an HIV diagnosis. There are often several years between contracting the infection and establishing a diagnosis. Based on the number of HIV diagnoses and knowledge about the progression of infections, the foundation estimates that approximately 440 people will be infected with HIV in 2024. A year ago, the foundation already reported a clear increase in the number of infections, for the first time in fifteen years.
In contrast to the number of infected people, there are hard figures about the number of people with an HIV diagnosis. In 2024, 444 Dutch people were diagnosed, SHM reports. Although these figures say little about the intensity with which the virus is circulating in 2025, they also show how difficult it appears to be to get the HIV epidemic under control. For years, the number of HIV diagnoses systematically decreased. This was based on anonymous and free testing at the GGD, rapid treatment after an infection and the availability of the HIV prevention pill PrEP.
This years-long decline came to an end in 2020. Since then, every year it has become clear that it is not possible to reduce the numbers, although there has been a minimal decrease compared to 2023 (464 diagnoses).
I am surprised that we are seeing an increase in the number of estimated infections
“I am surprised that, at a time when we have resources such as PrEP and condoms to prevent HIV infection, our diagnosis figures are stagnating and we are also seeing an increase in the number of estimated infections,” says Marc van der Valk, director of the HIV Monitoring Foundation and internist-infectiologist at the Amsterdam UMC. More than forty percent of new HIV diagnoses are in men who have sex with men.
Van der Valk sees clear differences within that category. The number of HIV diagnoses among men born before 1980 is consistently declining. The increase is in the younger generations. “The precise reasons need to be investigated, but may be related to changes in risk behavior and lack of knowledge about or access to PrEP,” says Van der Valk.
SHM states that almost a fifth of men who have sex with men and trans people with an HIV diagnosis indicate that they have used PrEP in the past. Part of this group says that they wanted to use PrEP, but could not get it or were on a waiting list.
“It is a great pity that we are now at this point,” says Lyle Muns of Soa Aids Nederland. He advocates campaigns aimed at young men who have sex with men. “Older gay men have seen friends die during the AIDS epidemic. That fear is less common among generations who have not consciously experienced this. HIV is no longer a death sentence, but it is an annoying virus that you can no longer get rid of.”
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