When the transitory decline of the export rights of many “traditional” products was announced last week, the feeling of relief was similar to those of the rains that a balm was in the threat of drought that affected a good part of the nucleus zone of the country. Specifically, the decrease of 20% on average of the aliquots for liquidations made until June 30 (the highest, that of soybeans, went from 33% to 26% and 31% to 24.5% in the case of its derivatives; They are assimilated by producers as a placebo that is far from the solution of some difficulties.
THE OTHER CEPO. The context of the last year was that of the reversal of some trends that were previously hinted but that ended up checking the main factor of the agricultural company: its average profitability. First, Argentina is not a price formator alone, in any case, it could do it together with the other two great producers of the continent, Brazil and the United States but also in some products others are added, such as Paraguay (soybeans and meat), Uruguay (meat and wool). Therefore, the increase in the productivity of all these economies flowed during the last two decades in an increase in production that depends more and more on the Chinese vacuum, increasing the vulnerability of the system already overheated by climate unpredictability.
Far from US $ 600 that, for example, soy could play at the end of 2008 and the other record step of what it reached in June 2022 (US $ 650). Unrepeatable prices but served to cement the other factor that erodes business profitability: the combination between the multiple exchange rate (the “agricultural dollar” is always the lowest) and the export rights. Both vectors are unique in the production region: none of the direct competitors have to load that backpack that became more than two thirds measured in terms of the financial exchange rate.
Finally, the other gravitational issue is that of the evolution of costs, many of them with an evolution in the last year that exceeded the effective devaluation for the sector. In the last report of Fadeeacthe business association that brings together carriers, He explained that the increase in the costs of the 85%sector, lower than inflation (118%) but higher than the wholesale price index (67%) and more than triple the cinderella of the film, the official dollar (+ 24%). As transport summarizes many of the costs that are verified in agricultural exploitation, it serves as an indicator of the internal threat that the producer has. Other components, such as fertilizers, are dollarized and greater commercial opening would serve to compensate for other lashes. Finally, another of the key components is rent. It should be remembered that the sector is the most atomized in the country: no offeror has more than 2% of the market and the overwhelming composition is that of a combination of family business with association of producers under different signs (from “sowing pools” with varying degrees of formality, even working groups and cooperation). An alert light on the sector board was the default of large companies that postponed the payment of the service of their private debt, as was the case of The Grobo and Agrofinaduring this January. Many of these groups do not have land, but they rent to other owners without the ideal scale and given the disparate evolution of the variables (international prices, dollar and costs) the equation is dyed red.
In an analysis of the economist Salvador Distéfano on a study of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) On this agricultural campaign (20241/25), he concludes that while the United States shows greater efficiency in the production of corn and wheat, Argentina shows better soy performance, and Brazil presents the greatest productive fragility due to high costs. “These differences are due to greater technological and productive development in the United States and Argentina, and environmental strength from both countries with respect to Brazil”he comments.
Aside. Also the decrease in the withholdings and the promise to end up unifying the exchange rates at some point of this year have more signal value than an impact on itself. For Franco Artussor, researcher of the productive section of the IERAL, The total tax burden in the core zone goes from 59.4% to 54.4% (-5%) and 67.1% to 60.6% (-6.5%) in the extrapampean area. But in his opinion, it implies a turning point in fiscal policy towards the sector and an argument for the other tax battle, the provincial and municipal.
For its part, the economist Dante RomanOr, professor and researcher at the Center for Agribusiness and Foods of the Universidad Austral, estimates that this year there will be a cost of costs. “Everything that is linked to local values, such as work or freight, rose to the rhythm of inflation, not to the rhythm of the dollar, and remained a little behind”argues. Its prognosis for this campaign depends on two unpredictable factors exactly: international prices and rains.
“If it does not rain and the yields fall, they are higher prices, the market should help in that case: in soybeans, at 280 US $ begins to change the silver and 290 there is already a strong gain. Corn instead already had good prices before ads and with values above US $ 180 already has good numbers ”, anticipates.
Nothing is under control, everything can change is the current productive pattern, with which the “field” always lived but now shares that uncertainty with the rest of the sectors.
