After relieving customs: gold slips downwards – time for sale?

• Relief after relaxation in the trade dispute
• Safe investment ports less wanted
• Several analysts nevertheless advise a gold investment

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At the meeting of the weekend in Switzerland, the United States and China approached a trade agreement. In order to create space for further negotiations, it was agreed that the USA temporarily reduce its tariffs to Chinese imports from 145 to 30 percent for 90 days. Beijing’s surcharges against imports from the United States at the same time decrease from 125 percent to 10 percent.

This largely made relief in the markets. However, the declining risk aversion dampened the demand for safe investment ports such as gold. Accordingly, the price for the yellow precious metal – which had previously been led by Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy at record heights – fell back to a four -week low on Monday. Even in the further course of the week, the recent record heights remain significantly out of reach.

Experts continue to advise gold

Nevertheless, various experts advise against separating gold. “The progress that were achieved in the trade talks between the USA and China at the weekend significantly reduced the trade voltages, fueled the willingness to take risks and exposed the gold price in the place,” said Peter Grant, for example, to “Marketwatch”. However, the market will want to see further progress in trade agreements with China and other important trading partners, so that the downward risks for gold are at least initially “limited”, believes the Vice President and Senior Metal Strategist at Zaner Metals, the assessment of which, according to “there is still a lot of economic uncertainty” and increased geopolitical tensions.

In addition, central banks would support the gold price in two ways. On the one hand, there is direct gold demand from the central banks. On the other hand, it remains Monetary policy “Generally geared towards loosening”. Lower interest rates make the interestless precious metal more attractive.

In view of this, Grant is convinced that the underlying trend remains positive “. Therefore, his preferred scenario for gold provides for further consolidation within the range of $ 3,500 to $ 3,200, with a modest risk of expansion to 3,165 to $ 3,150.

No profit -taking

The leading global investment strategist Tim Hayes and the analyst London Stockton also advised out an exit in a note from Ned Davis Research. The gold trade is a crowded trade with little scope for errors if the conditions for the gold price deteriorate. Nevertheless, it is “not the right time” to take profits with gold, instead you should rather keep gold at the moment, according to the analysts. In her opinion, the metal is “suitable for global wealth allocation, even without the attraction of interest or dividend distributions”.

JPmorgan sees gold at $ 4,000

At JPMorgan, too, one expects a continued gold price rally. The investment bank recently surprised-albeit before the Sino-American approach-with a bullish forecast, which according to gold in the so-called base scenario, i.e. assuming a further growing US and global gross domestic product, until the summer of 2026 to increase to over $ 4,000 per $.

Editor finance.net