It was expected the hard result of tonight when in the government they let it transcend, in the previous days, that they were confident of “losing for little.” They handled numbers of the most diverse, some even optimistic, but deep down they did not believe in the siren songs of the friends pollsters, starting with Federico Aurelio, who talked about a “technical tie” or open final that left freedom alive progress in the legislative of the province of Buenos Aires. Others, even more effusive, until they predicted a triumph against Peronism, the scene that in the Casa Rosada looked with some disbelief. Did they see her coming? Did they feel that “the street” did not reflect that climate of artificial triumphalism? Finally, the shocking sake of reality has just arrived: with 82 percent of the scrutinized tables and a trend that seems irreversible, Patria Force was imposed by an overwhelming margin of 8 points or more: 46.93 percent against 33.85, at the close of this note.
The first reading is that it is an obvious brake not only to the government and its economic program, but also in the presidential style that Javier Milei himself tried to soften with the recent promise of not insulting his adversaries more, a declaration of good intentions that lasted what a sigh. The second conclusion is that the “black swan” of the coimagate, unleashed in the final stretch of the campaign with the audios of Diego Spagnuolo and the mention of 3 percent that the president’s sister would raise on the left among the pharmaceutical companies with contracts with the government, ended up pending deep. The scandal monopolized the agenda in recent weeks, brought judicial movements, memes and songs in the recitals and fúbol parties and cost a very expensive to a Milei who, stubbornly as it is, insisted on hugging Karina in the closing act. Bad idea. According to previous surveys, the AFFAIRE was going to mean a bleeding of its own votes, of up to 15 percent of citizens who until then defined as libertarians. It is what happened. Although those disenchanted have not migrated to Peronism, the truth is that they stopped voting to Milei and their candidates.
A third reading has to do with how much the government itself contributed, with its wild inmates, to shoot this shot in the foot. In the last meeting of the girl campaign table, which Karina Milei, their shipowner Sebastián Pareja and the star advisor Santiago Caputo, there were very hard reproaches from the second to the last. He recriminated that he was not helping in the task of seeking prosecutors for the day of the election that would allow him to deal with the apparatus of Peronism. Caputo’s response only generated more anger: why should he take care of that if the lists did not include any candidate of his internal space, the digital militants of “the forces of heaven”? Speaking of Digital, the hardness of the crossing also caught attention that the Chief of Cabinet, Guillermo Francos, and the commander of the caputist trolls, “El Gordo Dan” starred in these hot hours, when the second wrote irreproducible phrases about the disabled daughter of an ally as Luis Judge. More fire friend.
What now triggered the defeat in the province, prelude to the October key election, is the fear that tomorrow there is a “black Monday” in the markets in the face of the evidence that Milei’s plan has new sticks on the wheel. To the fear that produces a rise in the dollar and the country risk is added the uneasiness of how the government could react to this result. Will a change go down? Will it radicalize even more? How will the result impact on the president’s unpredictable psyche? Will there be modifications in the cabinet or fuses such as “Lule” Menem, the right hand of Sister Karina in the coimas scandal? Or will they all stay?
And the other question is how Mileism comes to October without the devaluation demanded by the establishment to correct the cheap dollar anomaly. But if you devalue, will that not immediately impact prices and leave Milei without the only flag that keeps high, the brake on inflation?
Everything is in the air. It is what happens when a president who fights with everyone suffers a sake like tonight.
