A good climate agreement is probably not possible in Egypt

The climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh formally ends on Friday afternoon. It will be a hell of a job to get a good agreement out of it. UN boss Guterres, who flew in on Thursday, called on rich and poor to stop pointing fingers and take action.

Ben van RaayNovember 18, 202205:00

They are not negotiators in suits, but more than a thousand colorfully dressed activists who occupied the Ramses plenary meeting room at the UN climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh on Thursday. Women, youth, trade unionists and representatives of indigenous communities are demanding a strong and just outcome of COP27 with flaming speeches, applause, chanting and footsteps. ‘We have power’, a young activist shouts, ‘and we will change the world.’

The question is whether the negotiators in the adjacent rooms heard it. There they wrestled with a discussion paper that the Egyptian chairman, Sameh Shoukry, delivered on Thursday. Not a draft final statement as is normally available at this stage, but a messy text full of weird proposals and empty passages. To the frustration of the negotiators from the European Union, Canada and the United Kingdom, who sounded the alarm at Shoukry and told him that this COP must not fail – so come up with a workable text quickly.

Activists occupied the plenary chamber at the UN climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh on Thursday.Image AP

Now Shoukry also has a huge job, because the divisions at the top are great and the points of view are far apart. It does seem, however, that there is agreement to uphold the Paris target of a maximum of 1.5 degrees of warming by 2100. Countries like China and India wanted to let that go. However, the G20 in Bali (with China and India) expressed support for the goal this week. Letting go of the 1.5 degree would have given international climate policy a moral blow, although scientists think that the goal is no longer realistic.

To keep 1.5 degrees in sight, a huge gap must be closed between countries’ climate plans and the actual required emission reductions, but not all countries are prepared to do that. It would be a boost if this COP finally gave up on fossil fuels. Last year in Glasgow it was decided to phase out coal, but that was weakened to ‘scaling down’ by the actions of China and India. Now India is proposing to scale down oil and gas in addition to coal. The EU thinks this is a good plan, but it needs more support.

Climate compensation

The biggest bone of contention is (as always) money. In Sharm el-Sheikh, this is mainly about climate compensation: support for vulnerable countries that are affected by climate disasters such as droughts and floods. After thirty years of pleading, poor countries want a decision to finally be taken at this COP to set up a special compensation fund for this. They threaten to block a final agreement if this does not happen. “Anything less than establishing a damage fund on this COP is treason,” Antigua and Barbuda Environment Minister Molwyn Joseph said today.

Rich countries never wanted climate compensation (also loss and damage called) for fear of open-ended arrangements or liability due to their decades of high emissions, but there seems to be some movement. The EU now says it is positive about climate compensation, albeit preferably through existing channels, and provided China also participates. A lubricant in the negotiations can be other financial commitments. For example, to distribute the USD 100 billion in climate money per year that poor countries were previously promised differently: more on adaptations to climate change, as the poor countries want, and less on sustainability.

Frans Timmermans, Vice-President of the European Commission, with US climate envoy John Kerry at the climate summit in Egypt on Thursday.  Image Nariman El-Mofty / AP

Frans Timmermans, Vice-President of the European Commission, with US climate envoy John Kerry at the climate summit in Egypt on Thursday.Image Nariman El-Mofty / AP

So it will be an exciting 24 hours in the halls of the COP. The negotiators are expected to aim for a compromise in which support for more climate ambition from poor countries is exchanged for a commitment from the rich countries about climate compensation. They would then support a decision in principle on the establishment of a compensation fund, the details of which will be worked out in the coming years. In EU circles, such an approach is believed to be promising.

It is nevertheless expected in the corridors that the negotiations will not be completed before Friday evening. There is a good chance that they will continue into the wee hours, extending into Saturday, an insider says. But one thing is certain: failure is not an option. That is also what UN boss Antonio Guterres said, who flew in from Bali on Thursday. He saw a ‘crisis of confidence’ between rich and poor, called for ‘finger-pointing’ to stop and to take action. If countries continue to blame each other for what goes wrong, it is “a recipe for mutually assured destruction.”

And what if there is no agreement on climate compensation? Then poor countries go to the International Court of Justice to argue that rich countries with large emissions have a duty to protect the rights of current and future generations against the consequences of the climate crisis. They want to submit a UN resolution to this effect to the UN General Assembly, Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s environment minister, announced Thursday.

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