According to a study, the consequences of demographic change for the labor market are particularly strong to feel the East German federal states and the Saarland. The population of working age in Thuringia with 15.8 percent will fall most clearly until 2040, according to a projection by the Nuremberg Institute for Labor Market and Vocational Research. Among the German federal states, Hamburg and Berlin alone are still growing.
The projection expects the number of workers in Germany to decrease from 47.1 million in 2023 to 46 million in 2040. In the same period there will be 910,000 jobs less.
Where jobs are broken down
However, this development varies regionally, explained IAB expert Enzo Weber. While the most jobs are created in Berlin, Hamburg and Hesse by 2040 by 2040, it is very few or none in the East German states of space. As a result of structural change and falling number of workers, most of the jobs are also broken down there.
According to the projection, the various economic areas also develop differently. In the health and social affairs, around 600,000 new jobs will arise nationwide in view of the aging population nationwide. In contrast, fewer labor will be needed in industry, in the public service, wholesale and retail and the construction industry.
Stop downward spiral
If you want to get the economic power, you have to target in the shrinking regions, said Weber. Otherwise there is a risk that a downward spiral will be started. If fewer people lived in a region, the public infrastructure will also be returned, which could be used to make more people away.
Weber sees potential, for example, in older people and women who could work longer or more. Technological solutions such as virtual work could also help, because this could work in regions with little job options without moving in regions where workers are sought.
But without the immigration of foreign labor, it would not work, said Weber. “But they often work under their possibilities in Germany.” Therefore, the recognition of degrees, linguistic support and vocational training, would have to be improved.