After stopping Monday of the American arms deliveries, the government of President Trump now also ceases the sharing of military intelligence with Ukraine. It means a new, heavy setback for the Ukrainians in their survival struggle against the Russian occupier.
The National Safety Advisor of the White House, Mike Waltz, said on Wednesday that the arms and intelligence stop will remain in force until there is a date for peace negotiations.
The Trump government tries to move Kyiv with murderous pressure to close a ceasefire with Russia. This is, among other things, because the US no longer wants to put money in the defense of Ukraine. President Zensky repeats every day that no one wants peace so much as the Ukrainians, but that security guarantees are needed to ensure that Russia – despite that despite previous agreements the invasion began – will not violate such a treaty.
Weapon system
There is still much unclear about the extent to which sharing information has been stopped. Washington would also have forbidden Western allies to share American intelligence with Ukraine.
A source at the Ukrainian security service told SkyNews that it in the first instance means that the US will stop providing information that makes attacks possible in the Russian interior. That would mean that information is still being shared for attacks on military goals in the field of occupied.
“That could be true,” says Ivan Stoepak, military expert and former officer at the Ukrainian intelligence service, by telephone. “It’s a strange situation. It seems that the government itself does not yet know exactly what the consequences will be. ” He states that a stop on ‘active information’ for targets on Russian interior is certain. “But what about ‘passive information’ – about ammunition deliveries, troop movements, moving naval vessels or rearranging strategic aviation? That is not clear at the moment. “
Space domain
The American military satellite support and information provision (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, In short, ISR) is crucial for Ukraine to keep the country standing against Moscow’s military force majeure.
Take care of the front First-person view (FPV) and surveillance drones the most important images for infantry or tank attacks. “But if, for example, it is very cloudy or foggy, they will see the opponent less well. From the room and with radar signals you can look through the weather a little easier. It is precisely that Space domain is missing for Ukraine, “says Arnaud van Kleef, ISR expert at the Dutch Aerospace Center (NLR).
“Irs has become a weapon in itself,” continues Van Kleef. “If that falls away, the Ukrainians are at the mercy of the systems that are under European management. And they don’t have the amounts of satellites that the Americans have. “
In addition, Ukraine also depends on the front for communication on the US via Starlink. The drone control and all kinds of communication go through the Sattelite network of billionaire and Trump-true Elon Musk. Although Musk reports in this sense, would the US already threatened have with a closing of Starlink.
With such a combination, the US threatens to make Ukraine ‘blind and deaf’, says Van Kleef. “Blind because the country without frequent updates cannot see what threat comes to them. Deaf because they can’t communicate between units without Starlink. ”
In Europe, the French-British Eutelsat is now being looked at as an alternative. Since the merger with the British OneB in 2023, Eutelsat has had the only operational constellation of satellites in a low track to take over the earth that could take over the functionality of Starlink – albeit slower (150 megabite per second versus 200), and more expensive for users.
American weapons
After the weapon and intelligence stop, the US can go one step further. “The Americans also have the whole Command and Control Chain – So how fast the data and orders go to implementation. The Ukrainians do have their own Battle Management System [waarmee militaire operaties gepland worden]but of course what you can’t do with that is American weapon systems. In any case not without the permission of the Americans, “says Irs expert Van Kleef.
This also fears analyst sidewalks: “What is not clear to me and even Ukrainian high officials is whether you can use the American anti -aircraft system Patriot – which disposes ballistic rockets – without any support from the United States. For example, can the US switch off the software updates remotely, so that the entire system is no more than a few pieces of metal? ”
A complete American stop on sharing military intelligence can seriously deteriorate the situation for the civilian population. Thanks in part to the US, Ukraine is aware of Russian launches of rockets and attack drones in the direction of Ukraine, but also of other war maneuvers.
So far, Putin has not had to make any commitment on American road to an end of the war against Ukraine, which Russia started in 2014 with the occupation and annexation of Crimea. It seems that Trump manages a file where Russia continues to control the occupied territories – almost 20 percent of the territory of Ukraine.
Since last Friday, the relationships between Kyiv and Washington have deteriorated rapidly due to the confrontation in the White House between Zensky on the one hand and Trump and vice-president JD Vance on the other.
In the meantime, Zensky is trying to somewhat improve the disturbed relationships. In one extensive message On X he emphasized on Tuesday that he wants to collaborate with Trump to get peace with Russia. “Ukraine is willing to sit down at the negotiating table as quickly as possible to bring permanent peace closer,” he wrote. “Me and my team are ready to work under President Trumps strong leadership.”
The Ukrainian president also returned to the hard confrontation in the White House. “Our meeting in Washington […] Did not go like had had to. […] It’s time to put things right. ” Zensky indicates that Ukraine is willing to draw the raw material deal, which he and American officials have been negotiating for several weeks.
Ukraine affects a possibility in which a cease-fire is closed per sector-such as on the Black Sea, by striking attacks on energy supply, or with a prison exchange-so that trust can be built up. Analyst Stoepak: “As I see it, the ball lies with Trump. He has to kick him to Russia. ”