Shocked by the speech of the American vice president JD Vance in Munich? And from a week in which President Donald Trump did one concession after the other at the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine and made it clear that Europe is not welcome at the negotiating table?
Then prepare yourself, says Bruno Maçaes. The relationship between Europe and America will no longer be as it was: the continent will have to get used to a landslide that is much greater than the election of Trump, says the former Minister of European Affairs in Portugal, adviser and author of, among others Dawn or Eurasia (2018). This month his newest book appeared, World Builders, Technology and the New Geopolitics.
In 2018, Maçaes already warned that Europeans were not ready to think in the geopolitical language of power, spheres of influence and autonomy. The shock golf that went through Europe last week shows that it now penetrates more, he says. In fact, the shock is not big enough for many.
Why should we be so shocked?
“Many Europeans place the US on a pedestal. The worst thing they could imagine was that Americans would abandon them. Now it appears that Europe should not only take into account an America that is aloof and isolationist, but also an America that is downright hostile. That America exists: you can’t draw a different conclusion after Vance’s speech. “
What does it say that the shocking speech came from Vance, and not from Trump?
“I still notice with many Europeans that they nuance the actions of the US government by saying: Trump said this, Trump has done that. As if Trump does not represent the US. Maybe you could say that in 2016, but not after he was elected for the second time, with a majority of the votes. The economic elite is behind him, there is an intellectual movement that he is part of.
“So no, this is not just Trump. We must acknowledge that this is what the US is now. Whoever denies that sounds like the communists of yesteryear who shouted at every criticism of the Soviet Union: yes, but that was not real communism. ”
Why does Trump cut, no, the US, now so hard on Ukraine and Europe?
“I hear two reasons. The first is that Trump is out to break the alliance between China and Russia, to tackle China better. My own explanation is another. I think America is not about Russia, but about Europe. On the right America and Russia share the feeling that Europe is arrogant and has a much greater role than deserves it on the basis of its actual power.
“What we see is a deliberate humiliation of Europeans. Let them solve the instability, let them pay the bill. The speech of Vance and the new Ukraine policy are both an expression of Eurofobia, the feeling that Europe should not put on such big pants. ”
Where does that Eurofobia come from?
“A few years ago it started to stand out during conversations with conservative people in Washington and Silicon Valley. In the jokes they made, their sharp comments, about lazy and spoiled Europeans, meanwhile completely dependent on the US. They see Europe as an annoying child.
“At first I found it entertaining, sometimes I could even agree with the criticism. But after a while I found out that people did not say this at all. If someone always makes the same jokes, you know it has become an obsession. That obsession, this contempt, has now penetrated into the White House.
“And then Trump is one of the milder Eurofoben, alongside people like Musk and Vance. Remember: first we had a President Trump without ideology. Now we have Trump with ideology. And it won’t be long before we have the ideology, without Trump. “
“The speech of Vance and the new Ukraine policy are both an expression of Eurofobia, the feeling that Europe should not put on such big pants.”
In 2018, in The Dawn of Eurasia, you wondered where the European strategy was for the new era. Have you already found it?
“There cannot be such a strategy as long as Europeans stick to the myth that the US always has the best for us. If Europe can blame itself for something, it is that it has co -fueled the American delusions. I spoke politicians in Europe who stated that the US knew better what was good for Europe than Europeans themselves. That radiates on the US. If the people around you are constantly crawling, you will ultimately overestimate yourself. ”
Is that what we see now? We already see government leaders who propose to buy more weapons and gas from the US to keep Trump a friend.
“Now that we know what the US is planning with Ukraine, you can no longer seriously maintain that you can win Trump with some small presents for you. The provocations are increasing. If he proposes to spend 5 percent of GDP on Defense, it is more than the US itself. That money will also largely go to American defense companies. You can accept all of that, as a kind of submissive colony. Or you choose to become autonomous and sovereign. “
An autonomous and sovereign Europe, what does that mean?
“The EU is protectionist towards India and China, but never towards the US. We protect the car industry against Chinese electric cars, but do nothing against the American takeover of the internet economy. Why on earth did we decide that it was fine that all those companies come from the US? Even India has tried, under difficult circumstances, to create something of sovereignty. Not Europe. “
That sounds nice, but isn’t it much too late for that in practice?
“No, no, absolutely not. You may be too late to set up a rival for Facebook, but Facebook is already dated. Look at artificial intelligence, that is still in its infancy. Limit restrictions on American companies and invest in European capital and knowledge in building alternatives. If Trump is going to bring something to us, it is that this realization will penetrate Europe faster. ”
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