The health of Pope Francis has once again been the object of attention after his most recent hospitalization, which revives speculations about an eventual conclave. At 88, the Argentine pontiff has faced various health problems, including mobility and bruising difficulties, as well as respiratory problems, such as those he showed in his most recent public appearance, prior to hospitalization. The Pope sought to move forward with his agenda, which shows his intention to continue his pontificate as far as his condition allows him. But your health is fragile.
“I’m fine,” Francisco said in his autobiography “Hope”, published recently. “The reality is simply that I am old.” This statement, although simple, encapsulates the perception that the Pope has about his state of health. Despite his physical problems, he insists that “the Church is governed with the head and heart, not with your legs”, thus discarding any insinuation that its ailments affect its leadership capacity.
However, beyond its physical state, what generates greater interest is the way Francisco has been configuring the Cardinal College, ensuring that his legacy lasts in the choice of his successor. With his tenth session, held in December 2024, the Pope has appointed 21 new cardinals, thus consolidating his influence on the electoral body of the Church. Of the 140 cardinals under 80 years of age with the right to vote, 110 have been designated by him, which guarantees that his progressive reforms and vision have a decisive weight in the immediate future of the Church.
The choice of these new glitters is not accidental. Many of them are aligned with their renewal agenda, such as the Archbishop of Lima, Carlos Gustavo Castillo Mattasoglio, who has openly defended the need to suppress conservative movements within the Church. They also include key figures in Vatican management, such as Baldassare Reina, in charge of the administration of the Diocese of Rome, or the British Timothy Radcliffe, who played a relevant role in the recent one.
Renewal
Francisco’s emphasis on inclusion and decentralization is also reflected in the geographical distribution of new cardinals. Latin America, Africa and Asia have gained representation, while the weight of Europe, especially from Italy, although it remains strong, has been balanced with new voices of other latitudes. In this sense, the choice of African cardinal Ignace Bessi Dogbo and the Asian Pablo Virgilio Sinogco David underlines the will to build a more diverse and representative church of his global parishioners.
Francisco’s recent books and interviews have addressed rumors about their possible resignation. “Every time a sick Pope, the winds of conclave always seem to blow,” he acknowledges in his book. However, he emphasizes: “Even during the days of surgery, I never thought about giving up.” In his statements, the Pontiff has insisted that a resignation would only happen in case of an absolute disability to govern the Church, which suggests that it still does not contemplate that possibility in the short term.
In this scenario, the land for an eventual conclave is already prepared. While the result is never completely predictable, the truth is that most voters have been designated by Francisco, which increases the possibilities that their successor continues their reform project.
Among the names that sound with greater force are Cardinal Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, close to the Pope’s pastoral vision; the Italian Pietro Parolin, Secretary of Vatican State and key figure in ecclesial diplomacy; and African Fridolin Ambongo, who has gained prominence in recent years. Cardinal Hungarian Péter Erdő, in a more conservative profile, and Canadian Marc Ouellet, who has been an influential figure in the Roman curia, are also mentioned.
Conclave
The papal choice process is governed by a secret voting system in the Sistine Chapel, where the cardinals must reach a two -thirds majority to choose the new pontiff. Currently, the Cardenalicio College is composed of 253 cardinals, although only 140 of them have the right to vote for being under the age of 80. Of these, 111 were designated by Francisco, ensuring that his influence lasts beyond his pontificate. The choice of the next Pope will be key to determining whether the Church will continue with Francisco’s way of reforms or if he will opt for a more conservative course.
The composition of the Cardenalicio College has changed significantly during Francisco’s pontificate. It has promoted greater geographical diversity, leaving aside the traditional European hegemony. His emphasis on the inclusion of cardinals of historically less represented regions, such as Africa and Asia, suggests that the next conclave could be marked by a more global vision of the Church. In this context, an eventual successor that comes from outside Europe is no longer a remote possibility, but a tangible option that would reflect the demographic reality of current Catholicism.
Despite rumors and speculation, Francisco is still in charge of the Church and continues to drive his reformist agenda. However, his advanced age and his fragile health inevitable that the debate on his succession becomes more and more relevant. The next conclave will not only choose a new Pope, but will define the future of the Catholic Church at a time of deep transformations and challenges.
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