In Belgium, where they have long mastered the art of forming the most incredible coalitions, there is a beautiful expression: “A horse that passes the Council of Ministers becomes a dromedary.” It means that with so many different parties in the government you constantly have to compromise. Every decision is by definition a political monstrosity. In the past, sociologist Luc Huyse once explained NRCpeople accepted that dromedary. Each coalition party massaged this into its own supporters. But that doesn’t work anymore. “Now politics is hardly about arguments anymore, but about perception. The trick now, for a politician, is to present everything as beautifully as possible. So you turn that dromedary into a horse again.”
This explains why three Austrian middle parties, together a comfortable majority, failed to form a government. And in other European democracies, middle parties are also finding it increasingly difficult to make compromises, or in other words to produce dromedaries and sell them to voters. The Austrian negotiations broke down over money. On cuts. It was that banal. Money is always difficult, especially when cuts need to be made. At the same time: you can conclude agreements about money – figures, percentages – without negotiators undermining each other’s value. That is a ‘hard’ subject, about which you can argue. Compromises on ‘softer’ topics that increasingly dominate the agenda, such as identity or religion, are more sensitive.
The fact that Austrian government formation has failed precisely because of money is a bad sign. It shows that the problems in this mature democracy are so serious that moderate politicians can no longer even agree on money. This is how the dike broke against the extreme right. A party that won 28 percent in the elections is now forming a government with the claim that it “speaks on behalf of the people” (sound familiar?).
In a week in which Elon Musk is trying to depose the British government and Donald Trump is proving with claims to Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal that imperialism immediately revives when the international regulatory system falters – in such a week you might think: should those Austrian negotiators no idea of what they were doing? But watch out, this happens everywhere. In December, the governments of France and Germany both fell short of money.
The Austrian weekly Falter published Tuesday a reconstruction of the failed government formation. 96 days, three hundred negotiators, thirty working groups: it’s not like they’ve thrown their hats at it. Nobody allowed the extreme right to gain power. No, the problem lies elsewhere. The problem is that the three parties always had to negotiate with their supporters every inch of concession on the climate bonus, pension reform, healthcare financing, wealth tax, etc.
Back to Luc Huyse: in the past, when parties had clear supporters, party leaders made compromises on, say, a pension reform, and then convinced their voters. That sometimes got very heated. But workers at the time may have had two ways to retire. Now there are a hundred ways. How do you, as a politician, convince a collection of individuals who have different interests and constantly switch parties? Unfinished business. Every time Chancellor Nehammer offered something to the Social Democrats, employers or other interest groups in his conservative party stood in his way. Conversely, Andreas Babler was rejected by his own Social Democrats. Zero room to move, that’s the problem. Finally, interest groups, rather than politicians, pulled the plug. Now charlatans are jumping into the gap.
It’s time for an upgrade of the dromedary. Especially in a fragmented society you have to live with compromises. Yes, monstrosities even. Otherwise moderate politics is impossible. Like Falter wrote: “Without room for maneuver there will be no compromise, without compromise there will be no deal, without a deal there will be no coalition.”