After 15 match days in the Bundesliga, newly promoted Holstein Kiel is in a direct relegation zone with just two wins. Coach Marcel Rapp is convinced that KSV will stay in the league if his players continue to learn. The data shows where the “improvermaker” has to start.
Holstein Kiel is starting 2025 with a major offensive. For the 125th year of its existence, the association has come up with a precise timetable for the founding day on October 7th. They want to “focus particularly on the great tradition, personalities and successes of the KSV,” it says on the “Storks” homepage.
The extensively planned process could falter again in the summer – if the Kiel team manages to stay in the league. After last year’s promotion, that would be the next football miracle on the fjord.
Holstein Kiel with a tailwind – and serious problems
After the 5-1 win over Augsburg, the Rapp team is approaching this task with hope and tailwind, but in the remaining 19 games – starting with the game at SC Freiburg on January 11th (3.30 p.m., in the NDR Livecenter) – However, we also got some construction sites under control as quickly as possible.
The experts at the Global Soccer Network (GSN) used data to analyze that Holstein “shows serious weaknesses in all key areas: an unstable defense, an inefficient offense and an imprecise and uncreative passing game.”
Lots of goals conceded through the middle
With 38 goals conceded, Schleswig-Holstein has the weakest defense in the league so far. The team in the center is particularly vulnerable. She concedes an average of 1.2 goals per game through the middle (18th place in the league), which, according to the GSN experts, “indicates a lack of compactness and inadequate tackling in central areas”. In central defender David Zec, the “Storks” have addressed one of the most pressing problems here, at least in terms of personnel.
According to the data, the Slovenian – current GSN index 62.71 (below average Bundesliga player), possible GSN index: 64.99 (solid Bundesliga player) – is a robust tackler with good passing values, but an average overview in pressure situations.
What is the GSN Index?
Four-pillar principle:
- 1. “Football characteristics”: technique, game overview or first contact: assessments of 130 football-specific characteristics from more than 300 scouts worldwide.
- 2. “Football potential”: Where are players improving, where are they stagnating or regressing? An algorithm analyzes data from the first pillar and compares player types.
- 3. “Performance on the field”: goals, passes, fouls, shots or even offside positions: the basic game data and further analyzes such as “expected goals” or “action scores” are placed in a higher-level context by an algorithm – for example position-related .
- 4. “Playing level”: Every team or league has a numerical value that measures its strength. Oberliga or Champions League: The higher the opponent’s level of play, the more positive it has an effect on the GSN index.
Rating scale:
- 85 – 100: World class
- 70 – 85: international class
- 60 – 70: Average Bundesliga or the top 5 leagues
- 50 – 60: Average 2nd Bundesliga
- 40 – 50: Average 3rd league
- 30 – 40: Average regional league
Two GSN index values:
- Current GSN Index: shows the current, all-round quality of a player based on the data from the four pillars and algorithm calculations.
- possible GSN index: Artificial intelligence uses the data to determine the best possible future performance level of a player.
Zec and his new colleagues will have to improve – for example by having the defenders intercept more opposing passes. Currently that’s just under eleven per game (16th place in the league). Especially since the North Germans keep getting themselves into trouble by losing the ball in their own half.
Losing the ball in your own half
On average, they lose the ball in their own half 46 times per game (16th place), often in dangerous areas, which leads to many opposing scoring chances (16th place). This means: No team in the league allows as many shots to the opponent as Holstein – almost 16 per game. And since many of them are also classified as “high quality”, the expected goals against (xGA) result in a very high value, which is over two per game (rank 17).
The “Expected goals” model
“Expected goals” are “expected goals” and are calculated using a data model that takes into account a variety of factors – including where on the pitch the shot came from, what the angle to the goal was and how many opponents were still between the ball and the goal Gate stood. Each scoring opportunity is given a value between 0 and 1 to determine the probability of the ball landing in the goal from that point. “Expected goals” values are more meaningful than the normal goalscoring statistics, which treat all shots equally. GSN evaluated more than three million goals for the calculation.
It’s not just about defensive work in your own half, but also about “defending forward”. But here too there is a problem. The KSV has “no effective recaptures after ball losses (zero percent after ten seconds, 18th place) and few ball wins in the opponent’s half (almost 20 per game, rank 18). On the one hand, the opponents can often play freely and, on the other hand, keep the pressure on the Kiel defense constantly high.
Too little creativity and variability on offense
Hardly anything works on offense: neither through the passing game – Kiel is bottom of the league in passes into the final third and into the opponent’s penalty area – nor through crosses or dribbling. In addition, there is a glaring weakness in creating attacks with finishes (not ten per game, rank 18) – and using them efficiently.
The five goals against Augsburg significantly improved the statistics. Before the encounter against FCA, the North Germans had the fourth worst attack in the league. The GSN experts’ interim conclusion is: “Holstein Kiel’s attack patterns appear static and one-dimensional. The wing play in particular is weak.”
Wanted: “Playmaker” type
A central midfielder is urgently needed. According to the data, a new addition to this position would be even more important than the Zec transfer for central defense. According to GSN, the midfield position is “the most important building site for KSV to bring creativity and structure into the game”. On the one hand, it’s about “finding solutions in tight spaces”, but also about being able to play precise passes and execute dangerous set pieces.
However, Coach Rapp had already made it clear before the short winter break: “If we sign or loan players, then they should be better than the ones we have and be affordable. This combination is not so easy for Holstein Kiel.”
5-3-2 is the best Holstein formation according to the data
Conversely, this could mean: The KSV will (have to) continue to try with “on-board resources”. In order to be better defensively, the team will have to work on more compact structures, i.e. narrower distances between the parts of the team. It would also be conceivable to provide protection with a double six in midfield, better pressing or counter-pressing and more consistent defense of standard situations and counterattacks.
In order to become more dangerous on the wings, the full-backs could be more involved. Diagonal passes could be an appropriate stylistic device here, and more runs could be made into the back of the opposing defense to create more width and depth. In the test match at Union Berlin on Sunday (2-1), the wing play – as well as increased counter-pressing – worked better, at least in phases.
In general, the GSN data suggests that Coach Rapp should think about a 5-3-2 formation. The system could help KSV minimize defensive weaknesses and at the same time make better use of existing strengths such as running intensity, header presence and counter-attack play.
“If we continue on our path and develop the boys, then we will ultimately stay in the class.”
— KSV coach Marcel Rapp
Depending on the situation, the “Storks” could also “switch” relatively easily – against teams that control the center, for example to a 3-5-2 formation with three central midfielders.
“Bessermacher” Rapp is convinced that the lessons from the first 15 encounters will continue to bear fruit: “If we continue on our path and develop the boys, then we will ultimately stay in the class.” Nobody in the Kiel media team would certainly be angry with him if the sophisticated timetable for the 125th birthday in May had to be changed due to him staying in the league.
Possible lineup Holstein Kiel (5-3-2):
Weiner – Puchacz, Geschwill, Zec, Ivezic, Rosenboom – Remberg, Holtby, Knudsen – Machino, Pichler
This topic in the program:
Schleswig-Holstein Magazine | 01/06/2025 | 7:30 p.m
