The most important date on the international calendar of 2025 is January 20, the day of the inauguration of the President of the United States. Donald Trump’s comeback adds even more uncertainty and friction to an already chaotic world. With Trump, the US has a president who does not take democracy very seriously, who surrounds himself with ambitious tech billionaires and enjoys watching right-wing populist talk shows. Add to this Trump’s ambition to curtail the wings of the American government and the bitter way in which he tackles opponents and you know that the US is entering a politically tumultuous period.
The rest of the world will also know that the US will have a new leader. As a foretaste, Trump announced that ownership of Greenland is indispensable for the US, even though Greenland is not for sale. The world also has to get used to half-truths again. For example, Trump lashed out at the Chinese for allegedly controlling the Panama Canal. The canal is operated by Panama; Ports in the area are run by a Hong Kong company.
The disruptive president becomes a new and difficult to estimate variable in a world that is already quite disrupted. Trump does not see the US as a global police agent, but he cannot and does not want to withdraw from that world.
Last year, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu did not pay much attention to US admonitions to spare civilians in the hunt for Hamas. Netanyahu has even less to fear from Trump. The question becomes what role the US can play after a possible ceasefire. Can the US revive rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia?
The debate over Ukraine has already changed with Trump’s election. Trump wants to get rid of valuable support for Kyiv and is heading for negotiations. One scenario envisions a ceasefire along the current frontline. But the question is whether Trump can get Putin to the negotiating table and whether a deal is even feasible. Ukraine demands far-reaching security guarantees from its allies, Russia sees nothing in a heavily armed Ukraine.
Europe has now realized that much more needs to be done on defense. To support Ukraine and to improve its own defense. With Trump, the question is no longer whether the US will shift defense burdens to Europe, the question is how quickly that will happen.
International politics cannot be separated from the global economy. And in this respect too, Trump promises major shocks. He has already announced that he will significantly increase US import tariffs on Chinese products, up to a maximum of 50 percent. Allies, such as the EU, may also face tariffs of up to 10 percent (currently around 4 percent on average), or even 20 percent.
The measures against China in particular are part of the apparent American aim to make the US less dependent by persuading foreign companies to move their factories within American borders or to give domestic American production a competitive advantage over foreign countries.
The fact that this contradicts the global tariff cuts that were implemented under American pressure after the Second World War is indicative of the turnaround being made in Washington. Less importance is being attached to an open world economy now that the US no longer feels like it is the leader.
America’s allies in Europe are already considering an answer. But what happens in the rest of the world is perhaps even more important. In October, the so-called Brics countries, a growing group led by China, India and Russia, set themselves the goal of working towards a multipolar world economy and an end to the dominance of the US dollar. NATO member state Turkey joined the group.
The US is no longer the hyperpower that can control the world to its will, as evidenced by the unrest that is prevailing in so many places at the same time. The US is still a superpower and the only superpower with a democratic system, but its power is contested and constantly challenged. With Trump, the US will have a president who will stand up for his own interests in that arena like a street fighter. The ideal of a world in which states interact with each other on the basis of rules and trade is free is in danger of disappearing further with Trump.