Austria is hungry for a triumph at the Four Hills Tournament. Since Stefan Kraft (2014/15), no ÖSV Adler has managed to win what is probably the most prestigious competition in ski jumping. This dry spell will most likely end in 2025. Statistically, there is a lot to be said for a victory for half-time leader Daniel Tschofenig.
Before the third competition at Bergisel in Innsbruck, three Austrians, Tschofenig, Jan Hörl and Stefan Kraft, are in the lead – less than ten points separate their stable colleagues.
If you follow mathematics and statistics, Tschofenig has the best prospects. Since the 1996/97 tour, 19 of the 28 half-time leaders were ultimately ahead in the final score in Bischofshofen.
In the last 16 editions, only four jumpers lost their lead. The last person who didn’t save the half-time lead was Andreas Wellinger last year, who was started by Ryoyu Kobayashi in Innsbruck and Bischofshofen.
But Tschofenig is also warned: In the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons, the half-time leaders (Kobayashi and Halvor Egner Granerud) didn’t even end up on the podium in the end.
Gregor Schlierenzauer experienced the most dramatic crash in the winter of 2007/08. The World Cup record winner from Austria was still leading after the third competition, but then fell back to twelfth place at the end in Bischofshofen as 42nd in the daily ranking.
Four Hills Tournament: The half-time leaders from Garmisch since 1995/96 and their final placement
1996/97 Andreas Goldberger (Austria) 2.
1997/98 Kazuyoshi Funaki (Japan) winner
1998/99 Martin Schmitt (Furtwangen) 4.
1999/00 Andreas Widhölzl (Austria) winner
2000/01 Noriaki Kasai (Japan) 12.
2001/02 Sven Hannawald (Hinterzarten) winner
2002/03 Janne Ahonen (Finland) winner
2003/04 Sigurd Pettersen (Norway) winner
2004/05 Janne Ahonen (Finland) winner
2005/06 Janne Ahonen (Finland) winner (tied with Jakub Janda/Czech Republic)
2006/07 Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria) 2.
2007/08 Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria) 12.
2008/09 Wolfgang Loitzl (Austria) winner
2009/10 Andreas Kofler (Austria) winner
2010/11 Thomas Morgenstern (Austria) winner
2011/12 Gregor Schlierenzauer (Austria) winner
2012/13 Anders Jacobsen (Norway) 2.
2013/14 Thomas Diethart (Austria) winner
2014/15 Stefan Kraft (Austria) winner
2015/16 Peter Prevc (Slovenia) winner
2016/17 Kamil Stoch (Poland) winner
2017/18 Kamil Stoch (Poland) winner
2018/19 Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan) winner
2019/20 Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan) 4.
2020/21 Halvor Egner Granerud (Norway) 4
2021/22 Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan) winner
2022/23 Halvor Egner Granerud (Norway) winner
2023/24 Andreas Wellinger (Germany) 2