Acute energy crisis in Moldova after the expiration of the contract between Russia and Ukraine

Moldova has entered an acute energy crisis. The consequences are immediately noticeable in the separatist region of Transnistria. The central heating and hot water supply are now off. “Households have the option to heat their homes with firewood,” says the de facto administration of the area.

The cause is the expiration of the gas transport contract between Russia and Ukraine on January 1. The Russian gas entered Transnistria via the pipeline in Ukraine, which tapped it for free.

In the regional capital, temperatures drop below freezing at night. It was 10 degrees during the day on Thursday. Gas still flows for cooking, which comes from a storage facility. If this is used sparingly, the reserve can last ten to twenty days.

In the regional capital, temperatures drop below freezing at night

“It’s not going well, but it’s not fatal,” Roedik Petrosjan, an Armenian Transnistrian in Tiraspol for the holidays, said by phone. His parents have an air conditioner that also heats. To be on the safe side, an electric stove has also been purchased. “People are now focusing on their basic needs: the hot water that is not there. They are trying to solve that for themselves and their children.”

Schools in Transnistria are also no longer heated and will switch to home education after the New Year’s holidays. The largest hospital is heated with a diesel boiler.

Electricity

Transnistria, which declared its independence in the early 1990s (accompanied by a short war), covers about 4,000 square kilometers and has less than half a million inhabitants.

For more than fifteen years, Moscow’s military-backed separatists benefited from ‘free’ Russian gas. Transnistria used much of the gas to generate electricity, which was then sold by the separatists to the central capital for a pittance (0.6 euro cents per kWH).

In this way, Moldova met about 80 percent of its energy needs, and the separatists financed the budget of their de facto state. But the costs for the gas produced by the separatists were charged to Moldovagaz, the Moldovan state gas company.

Bill

In theory, Russia could continue to supply gas to Moldova through other routes, but instead the Kremlin has used the situation to press Chisinau for payment.

According to Moscow, the bill has now risen to around 700 million euros – although it does not provide any substantiation for this amount. Moldova requested an independent audit of the debt. In 2023, it was determined that the government was only indebted to around 8.3 million euros. Moldova is willing to pay that amount, but Russia does not consider this amount to be enough.

There is still electricity in Transnistria, the power plant has switched to coal. This is only sufficient for local needs.

The central government in Chisinau declared a state of emergency in December. The energy problems in the capital are expected to make themselves felt later this month.

Political consequences

In the area where the central government has control, the energy supply is somewhat more resilient. With support from the EU, the country has diversified somewhat in recent years. But all solutions make energy more expensive for Moldovans. This could have far-reaching political consequences for the country.

The country will go to the polls for parliamentary elections in July. Affordable energy, purchasing power and the economy are the most crucial political themes. The average monthly income is around 200 euros. From Tiraspol, Pashinyan says his monthly bill has doubled, from 30 to 60 euros.

“President Maia Sandu will have to explain why Moldovans suddenly have to pay more for energy,” says political scientist Anatoli Dirun. And although the government in Transnistria blames Chisinau, the risk of the energy crisis is also great for them, Dirun says. “There is an oligarchic, monopolistic political regime. When such a regime is confronted with a crisis, a lot can suddenly change – just think of Syria and the fall of Assad.”

In Tiraspol, Patrisjan does not yet feel any political tensions. He emphasizes that it is primarily a political conflict, not a struggle between the people of Transnistria and the rest of Moldova. “We have no problems with each other,” he says. “Of course I would like to see free gas come back. Then everything becomes cheap again.”

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