Germany will be in draw 1 today in the group draw for qualifying for the 2026 World Cup and will avoid the big names. The reason for this is the good performance in the Nations League. But the team will only know its opponents after qualification begins.
The draw for the twelve European qualifying groups for the 2026 World Cup will take place on December 13th at 12 p.m. in Zurich.
The eight quarter-finalists of the Nations League – including Germany – are guaranteed a place in draw pot 1. The remaining teams are sorted into pots based on their world ranking position that look like this:
- Draw pot 1: Spain, Portugal, GermanyFrance, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Croatia, England, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria
- Draw pot 2: Ukraine, Sweden, Turkey, Wales, Hungary, Serbia, Poland, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Norway
- Draw pot 3: Scotland, Slovenia, Ireland, Albania, North Macedonia, Georgia, Finland, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Israel
- Draw pot 4: Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Kosovo, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Lithuania
- Draw pot 5: Republic of Moldova, Malta, Andorra, Gibraltar, Liechtenstein, San Marino
Germany is avoiding the really big names. The team will receive one opponent from draw pots 2, 3 and 4.
Germany is only drawn as a placeholder
An opponent may only be added from Pot 5 if Germany loses the Nations League quarter-finals against Italy. And it gets even more complicated: Germany won’t know its opponents after the draw.
The reasons:
- There will be six groups of four teams each and six groups of five teams each, with 54 countries playing.
- The groups of five start in March 2025, the groups of four only in September 2025.
- The quarter-finals of the Nations League take place in March and the final tournament in June.
- The four winners of the quarter-finals of the Nations League must therefore play in one of the six groups of four, which only start in September. Only then will they have free dates for the final tournament of the Nations League.
- So there will be eight lots like “Winner Quarterfinal 1” or “Loser Quarterfinal 3”, Germany will be one of them.
This means that even on the first match day of qualification in March, the final composition of many groups will not yet be completely known.
This creates a potential disadvantage for the integrity of the competition: participants in the quarter-finals could theoretically benefit from a defeat if it means they end up in a supposedly easier group for the World Cup qualification.
Germany benefits from good results in the Nations League
It shows how important it was to reach draw pot 1: opponents like France, Spain, England or Italy would have been possible from draw pot 2. The team owes the fact that Germany is in draw pot 1 to reaching the quarter-finals in the Nations League. This is a big advantage because only the twelve group winners will qualify directly for the World Cupthe twelve group runners-up play in the playoffs against four group winners from the Nations League.
By winning the group in the Nations League, Germany also has a place in the playoffs for the World Cup qualification if in doubt if the team does not win its group or finish second in the group.
Finally, the seeding list was created entirely based on the FIFA world rankings. This time the Nations League plays a role in European World Cup qualification. This mode increases the sporting significance of the Nations League for the teams in League A.
The Nations League is changing the competition.
Playoffs remain as an emergency solution
For teams that miss the direct route to the 2026 World Cup in qualifying, the playoffs remain. Europe will get 16 instead of the previous 13 places in the World Cup, which has been expanded from 32 to 48 teams. In addition to the twelve group winners of the World Cup qualification, the twelve runners-up and the four best teams in the Nations League that have not yet qualified play in the playoffs.
Qualifying for the 2026 World Cup can be fraught with obstacles.
Four teams will play a winner in four tournament trees to determine the remaining four European World Cup participants. The playoffs will take place in March 2026. In the summer of 2026, the World Cup will be held for the first time with 48 teams – this is double the format of the 2024 European Championship.
Complex draw with some restrictions
The draw for qualifying groups for major tournaments is always complex in Europe. In addition to the Nations League final tournament, UEFA takes other constellations into account:
- There may not be more than one team per group of five that plays in the relegation games of the various leagues of the Nations League so that there are enough dates.
- Excessively long trips should be avoided. That is why Kazakhstan, for example, must not meet too many opponents in the far west of Europe such as Iceland, the Faroe Islands or Portugal.
- In order to avoid game cancellations, not too many countries where a strong winter is expected should meet. The combination of games between countries such as Finland, Norway, Lithuania or Estonia will therefore be limited.
Some parties are politically excluded:
- Spain – Gibraltar
- Armenia – Azerbaijan
- Kosovo – Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Kosovo – Serbia
- Kosovo – Russia*
- Ukraine – Russia*
*Russian teams have been suspended by UEFA after the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law.
Interlocking with the Nations League for women is even stronger
UEFA also holds a Nations League for women. The crucial difference to the men’s Nations League: The connection to qualifying for World and European Championships is even stronger. Because the league format remains the same in qualifying for the major tournaments.
Flag with the Women’s Nations League logo.
The competitions take place one after the other and are directly linked to each other in terms of sport. Anyone who is relegated from the Nations League has a worse chance of qualifying for the next European Championship or World Cup.
The path to the 2026 World Cup
The dates of the World Cup qualification:
- 1st matchday: 21st/22nd March 2025
- 2nd match day: 24/25. March 2025
- 3rd matchday: 6th/7th June 2025
- 4th matchday: 9/10. June 2025
- 5th matchday: September 4th – 6th, 2025
- 6th matchday: September 7th – 9th, 2025
- 7th matchday: October 9th – 11th, 2025
- 8th matchday: October 12th – 14th, 2025
- 9th matchday: November 13th – 15th, 2025
- 10th matchday: November 16th – 18th, 2025
- Playoffs, semi-finals: March 26, 2026
- Playoffs, finals: March 31, 2026
The Nations League dates:
- 1st matchday: September 5th – 7th, 2024
- 2nd matchday: September 8th – 10th, 2024
- 3rd matchday: October 10th – 12th, 2024
- 4th matchday: October 13th – 15th, 2024
- 5th matchday: November 14th – 16th, 2024
- 6th matchday: November 17th – 19th, 2024
- Relegation and quarter-finals: March 20 – 25, 2025
- Final tournament: June 4th – 8th, 2025
| Year | teams |
|---|---|
1930 | 13 |
1934 | 16 |
1938 | 15 |
1950 | 13 |
1954 | 16 |
1958 | 16 |
1962 | 16 |
1966 | 16 |
1970 | 16 |
1974 | 16 |
1978 | 16 |
1982 | 24 |
1986 | 24 |
1990 | 24 |
1994 | 24 |
1998 | 32 |
2002 | 32 |
2006 | 32 |
2010 | 32 |
2014 | 32 |
2018 | 32 |
2022 | 32 |
2026 | 48 |