The well-known fund manager Dr. Jens Ehrhardt is extremely optimistic about the further development of the German leading index. In his opinion, the DAX should break the 18,000 point mark this year before it goes further up to 20,000 points, as he emphasized in the interview.
• Investment legend Dr. Jens Ehrhardt with an optimistic forecast for the DAX
• 2024 increase up to 18,000 DAX points possible
• Targeting the 20,000-point mark in the medium term
The past year was an extremely successful one for the most important German stock market barometer: the DAX climbed by around 20 percent. In the still relatively young year of 2024, the leading index has so far increased by around 1.16 percent. After reaching a record high of almost 17,050 points in February, it is now struggling with the 17,000 mark again and was recently trading below it again at around 16,945.48 points (as of February 14, 2024).
The well-known fund manager Dr. Jens Ehrhardt recently gave a forecast for the further development of the German stock market and in particular the DAX. In an interview with the Handelsblatt, he was extremely optimistic about the short and medium term – he definitely sees new record values on the German market.
18,000 points possible in 2024
“The first half of the year could be tough. But things are likely to pick up in the second half with falling interest rates, increasing money supply in America again and, in our case, higher government spending,” said the expert. He definitely sees the DAX breaking the 18,000 point mark this year. This would mean that the most important German stock market barometer would be around 6.6 percent higher than it is currently – it is currently at around 16,945 points (as of: closing price on February 14, 2024).
Experts see potential in the DAX
Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, was recently even more optimistic. According to him, the DAX could easily climb to 18,600 points this year. From a current perspective, this would equate to an increase of around ten percent (as of: closing price on February 14, 2024). “As long as the market does not receive any data that suggests a sudden recession, optimism could continue,” Stanzl is quoted by Handelsblatt. However, he still expects a “rocking market” until March.
Gertrud Traud, chief economist at Helaba, expects a slightly lower but still optimistic price target, as the FAZ writes. According to her, the German leading index should be at 17,500 points at the end of 2024 – an upward potential of around 3.7 percent compared to the current level (as of closing price on February 14, 2024).
In the long term, Dr. Ehrhardt risks
In the medium term, Dr. According to Ehrhardt, we could then go even higher: “It could take us another two to three years to reach a level of 20,000 DAX points. With the expected interest rate cuts in the USA and the Eurozone, things should continue to rise this year.” .
In the long term, however, the expert was no longer quite as confident in the interview – he sees some risks in Germany, especially for the automotive industry. In this context, the German investment legend also compared the stock market rally in the USA, primarily triggered by the “Magnificent Seven” – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla, with the stock market bubble in 2000, before the crash occurred . “But back then these bets weren’t as concentrated as they are today. However, at the moment it’s hard to say when the trend in tech stocks will change. After all, companies’ profits are also increasing,” said Ehrhardt in an interview.
Whether and when there will actually be a collapse on the German stock market remains to be seen. However, the next interest rate meetings of the US Federal Reserve, the upcoming US presidential elections in November and other important events will certainly play a role in the further development of the DAX.
Editorial team finanzen.net