At the top, points are being scored more than ever, but at the bottom the teams are lagging behind: the gap in the Bundesliga is getting bigger and bigger. This is shown by historical comparisons.
FC Bayern’s performance was a bit slow again in the 3-2 win in Augsburg. The 3-0 win in the first Bundesliga game of the year against TSG Hoffenheim sounded much more confident than it ultimately was. In between, the Munich team lost 0-1 against SV Werder Bremen in their own arena.
Given the subjective impressions when looking at the objective table, it is surprising that FC Bayern, with 47, only has two points less than Bayer Leverkusen. After all, the leaders won 15 of 19 games and lost none.
Together, Leverkusen and FC Bayern have 96 points. This last happened after 19 match days in the 15/16 season, when the Munich team under coach Pep Guardiola contributed 52 points to this calculation.
Top teams score big points relegation candidates always less
There are always outliers, but this season reinforces a trend that has emerged in recent years. The gap within the league is getting bigger, the top teams are scoring a lot, the relegation candidates are getting fewer and fewer.
| Season 23/24 | Average compared ten years | |
|---|---|---|
Points leader | 49 | 45.9 |
Points second in the table | 47 | 40.0 |
Points 1 and 2 added together | 96 | 85.9 |
Points fourth in the table | 36 | 33.5 |
Points last three teams* | 34 | 41.8 |
* Mainz with only 18 games
In the current season, the teams in places 16 to 18 – 1. FC Köln, 1. FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98 – only have a total of 34 points. There have never been fewer in the past ten years.
Borussia Dortmund in fourth place, which is the last to guarantee qualification for the Champions League, has 36 points and therefore more than the three relegation candidates combined. This also never happened during the period under consideration. However, the Mainz team still has a catch-up game against 1. FC Union Berlin and can therefore improve their record a bit.
relegation candidates almost no chance against Top teams
The big gap in the current season is also reflected in the fact that the last three teams have so far only scored one point in the games against the top four – with VfB Stuttgart coming third in the table. Mainz achieved a 1-1 draw at BVB. Cologne lost its five games (twice against Dortmund) and didn’t score a goal. Darmstadt has four defeats and a goal difference of 2:19.
Long-term trend
A look back at the beginning of the century shows that the development of the big ones getting bigger and the small ones getting smaller already began back then.
| Average season 2001/02 to 05/06 | ||
|---|---|---|
Points leader | 43.6 | |
Points second in the table | 39.2 | |
Points 1 and 2 added together | 82.8 | |
Points fourth in the table | 34.2 | |
Points last three teams | 44.2 |
Only in the first season of the period under review – 2001/02 – did the trio in the last three places have fewer than 40 points after 19 match days, namely 39. A year later, however, it was 50. The average for the five seasons from 01/02 to 05 /06 it was 44.2. The two leading teams together averaged 82.2 points. The average over the past ten years is 85.9. Only in relation to the bottom of the table did the average fall by two points – from 13.4 to 11.4.
The current bottom team Darmstadt 98 has eleven points. He will welcome the leaders Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday (February 3, 2024, live in the audio stream from 3:30 p.m.) and could prove that anyone can beat anyone in the Bundesliga. This common word was heard much more often in the past than it is today. It is now more applicable to the 2nd league. The last three teams currently have eleven points more than leaders FC St. Pauli.