It’s official: 2023 will be the hottest year ever recorded worldwide | Science & Planet

Never before in the history of measurements has it been as warm worldwide as in 2023. The average temperature of 14.98 °C was 1.48 °C higher than during the pre-industrial period. This easily dethrones 2016 (14.81 °C) as the warmest year ever recorded. According to measurements, it was more than 1 °C warmer every day compared to the pre-industrial average. Even during 50% of the days the temperature was 1.5 °C higher than average. In November, the average global temperature even exceeded pre-industrial temperatures twice by more than 2°C. This has never happened before and, according to scientists, is very worrying. According to measurements by the European Climate Service, July and August in particular were record warm. The summer of 2023 was the warmest ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere.

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Globally, 2023 was the hottest year on record, but not for Europe. Last year came in second place after 2020, when the average temperature was 0.17 °C higher. September 2023 was the warmest September ever measured on the European continent. Both autumn and winter are the second warmest seasons ever recorded in Europe. Summer comes in fifth place. What is particularly striking is that the average temperature over most of Europe last year was higher than average, while parts of Scandinavia were just cooler than average.

In our country, 2023 is the third warmest year ever measured, after 2022 and 2020. It was record warm in both June and September.

Global sea water temperatures also consistently rose to record highs last year. Sea water temperatures in the northern Atlantic Ocean in particular spiked to record values ​​last summer with a real marine heat wave. Marine heat waves were also experienced elsewhere in the world. This was the case in the Mediterranean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean and the North Pacific.

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2023 was also marked by El Niño, a 4-6 yearly recurring weather phenomenon in which sea water temperatures are higher than average in the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon has an effect on global weather, and we clearly noticed the consequences last year. According to Copernicus, El Niño has become increasingly noticeable, especially from July onwards, due to the increase in sea water temperatures.

Not only did we break records last year in terms of temperature, the concentrations of greenhouse gases also continued to rise. This is also evident from the Copernicus measurements. In 2023, both the concentration of CO² as methane record values. The concentration of CO² rose to 419 ppm (parts per million). That is an increase of 2.4 ppm compared to 2022. The methane concentration increased by 11 ppb compared to 2022 (parts per billion) to 1902 ppb in 2023.

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2023 was also marked by many extreme weather events. We experienced one heat wave after another, resulting in droughts and forest fires. Those in Canada even reached extreme proportions. During the ongoing forest fires, more than 18 million hectares of forest are destroyed, which is about 5% of the total forest area in Canada. It is estimated that this would have emitted more than 400 megatons of carbon into the air. In total, this would partly result in around 30% more carbon being emitted in 2023 compared to last year. Not only were there periods of drought, in many places there was also excessive rainfall, resulting in flooding.

During eight of the twelve months, Antarctic sea ice reached exceptionally low extent. Sea ice traditionally reaches a minimum extent in February. Never before has the extent of the sea ice been as low as in 2023. The Arctic sea ice usually reaches its peak around March and a minimum in September. The maximum extent of northern sea ice in 2023 will be the fourth lowest and the minimum will be the sixth lowest since satellite measurements in 1979. So no records were broken in that area, but the downward trend continues. .

The answer to that is nuanced. The measurements show that the concentration of greenhouse gases continues to rise. This increase since the industrial revolution has already resulted in a temperature increase of more than 1.1°C worldwide, the consequences of which we are already noticing. More than 90% of warming is absorbed by the oceans. The sea water is also heating up, the consequences of which we could clearly notice in 2023 with the marine heat waves and high sea water temperatures spread across the world.

Yet there is also such a thing as ‘natural variability’ in the climate system. This means that the climate also has a natural evolution, where one year is not the same as the next and both warmer and cooler years can occur. El Niño is also an example of this. This is a recurring weather phenomenon that occurs every four to six years, and where sea surface temperatures are sometimes warmer than average in parts of the Pacific Ocean. The variation in seawater temperatures also affects the weather worldwide. In areas where the sea water is warmer than average, very wet periods with flooding occur more often, while places characterized by cooler sea water can suffer from droughts. Because 2023 is also characterized as an El Niño year, it is difficult to distinguish between the effects of climate warming and natural variations. The year 2016 is also an example of this.

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Yet it is clear that global warming has left a clear mark on global weather. The Atlantic Ocean was also characterized by record high sea water temperatures, while the effect of El Niño on this was minimal. The extreme weather in our region also has no link with the weather phenomenon.

With a temperature deviation of 1.48°C compared to 1850-1900, in 2023 we came very close to the limit of 1.5°C of warming set in the Paris agreement. During 50% of days in 2023, global temperatures were even 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average.

Does this mean that the Paris Agreement is doomed? No. The 1.5°C concerns an average temperature increase over a longer period, not just over an individual year. It will therefore take some time before that limit is actually exceeded. Yet we are getting awfully close and this temperature limit is rapidly approaching and this trend is worrying scientists. “The extremes we experienced in 2023 give us dramatic evidence of how abruptly our climate has changed from before. This has important consequences for what is laid down in the Paris Agreement. If we want to be prepared for what the future will bring, we must quickly decarbonize our economy (no more CO2 emissions, ed.) on the one hand, and on the other hand, continue to focus on collecting and analyzing climate data like this,” concludes Carlo Buontempo, director of the European climate service Copernicus.

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