After months of maneuvering, talking, lurking and hoping, History has run amok. With the invasion of Ukraine, President Putin plunges into the unthinkable, he has crossed the Rubicon, to war. He can’t go back. Whatever motive was decisive, the decision has been made. Fire and flames, all or nothing.
Political will and cool-headedness are now vital on our side. There is no shortage of the first. In times of danger, unsuspected forces are released. Starting in Ukraine, which bravely takes the first blows, fights back and has won the opening battle for European public opinion with flying colours. Today we see not a messy country of forty million people on the Black Sea, but a nation that presents itself as the bearer of Europe’s democratic promise, with President Zelensky as the universal hero.
The German political mobilization is certainly so unexpected and abrupt. The Federal Republic wants to get out of the NATO rearguard, is going to seriously arm itself (an extra EUR 100 billion for defense in 2022 alone) and is sending Kiev military equipment. Berlin breaks with economic spawning policy towards Moscow, recognizes gas dependence as a strategic mistake and faces the naivety and hypocrisy of the German export model (do business with despots under the guise of spreading freedoms). What tried-and-true eastern neighbors and strict American presidents have not been able to achieve in years, Putin is achieving in one fell swoop: Germany’s geopolitical awakening. Action and reaction.
Chancellor Scholz spoke of a ‘Zeitenwende‘ for Europe and took its parliament and public into this era. He reportedly announced the decisions without informing his own SPD and the Greens; only Treasury Secretary Lindner (FDP) knew about it. That’s exactly how Chancellor Kohl seized the moment in November 1989: three weeks after the fall of the Berlin Wall – another major event in galloping European history – he single-handedly launched plans for German unification in the same Bundestag, astonishing friend and foe alike.
This startling, second German ‘Wende‘ gives the whole EU more unity and strength. Heavy sanctions packages, which until last week were always slowed down or curtailed by Berlin, are succeeding each other. Europe is deploying its economic power and is publicly willing to factor in wealth pain for the sake of security and peace. The latter is new and shows a deepened political-strategic awareness.
It is equally striking that the European Union is going to supply weapons to Kiev for 500 million euros. Taboo until last week, also because of German resistance. With this, the EU has crossed its own Rubicon. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced it on Sunday. The European Peace Alliance is now party to a conflict with a military and nuclear power. That these war monies from a Brussels Peace Facility coming will not have escaped the attention of Kremlin spokesmen, experienced revealers of Western hypocrisy.
With us spectators, far from bombs on Kiev and Kharkov, concern and fear compete for precedence. Twitter triumphalism over Russian military miscalculations is premature. This Wednesday we are only on day 7. In 1940 the Germans needed five days and a devastated Rotterdam to make the small Netherlands capitulate.
There is therefore plenty of political will to live, but strategic calm is a scarcer commodity. The absolute priority is to avert the danger of nuclear war. To say that Putin is bluffing is irresponsible. Not all leading politicians seem aware of it. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen lightly puts the prospect of EU membership for Ukraine on the table. Promptly sends Zelensky the official proposal. Poland and other Eastern European countries are applauding it, the European Parliament is already applauding on Tuesday. Hesitant Member States are now silent or nuanced; no one begrudges the beleaguered Ukrainians a ray of hope.
In the brashness of the moment, von der Leyen seems to ignore that for the Kremlin, which we want to induce reason, our NATO and EU promises to Kiev since 2008 have been a major source of conflict. And how should we envision that: ex-Soviet Republic of Ukraine in the EU without becoming a NATO member at the same time? The latter is a red line, because it would risk a US-Russian nuclear war. Can the European Union rescue the country from Moscow’s clutches, now or in the future, without the US and on the basis of its own military assistance clause, Article 42 (7) of the EU Treatythe untested counterpart to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty?
Huge strategic questions. The twists of fate are not yet over.
Luke of Middelaar is a political philosopher and historian.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC in the morning of March 2, 2022