The football year in the Bundesliga is over, but the season is far from over. And yet it seems pretty clear who will be in the race for which goal.
Winter break in the Bundesliga. But that only really applies to what’s happening on the pitch, because there are important things coming up in the coming weeks. Coaching decisions at Borussia Dortmund, 1. FC Köln and 1. FSV Mainz 05. Many clubs have major transfer projects, especially FC Bayern Munich, who want to strengthen their defense and the midfield center.
But despite all the hustle and bustle that remains, it is now time to take a look back at the season so far in the Bundesliga – which, as a four-tier society, will enter its last 18 matchdays in January.
Class 1: Bayer or Bayern? That’s the (master) question here…
The good news for everyone interested: The fight for the championship will – as of now – be exciting again. And FC Bayern doesn’t have the best cards at the moment. The series and record champions (eleven titles in a row) are four points behind Bayer Leverkusen, who have not lost any of their 25 competitive games and have thus set a new record.
The “Werkself” got 42 out of 48 possible points, so Bayern had to stretch to stay there. They got 38 out of 45 possible points, plus a catch-up game against Union Berlin. “We got a lot of points, but Leverkusen got even more, and they deserve the utmost respect for that“said Bayern coach Thomas Tuchel.
If you extrapolate these balances, Leverkusen would end the season with 89 points, Munich with 86 points – so the trend between the two points in a direction that almost no other team has been able to take since the introduction of the three-point rule (in the 1995/96 season). Only FC Bayern was so successful with 91 (2012/13), 90 (2013/14) and 88 points (2015/16) – otherwise fewer and fewer points were enough. Last season, Tuchel’s team became champions with “only” 71 points.
It is therefore not surprising that no other Bundesliga team has managed to keep up with these two teams. The gap between the competition (assuming Bayern beat Union in the catch-up game) is already at least seven points. The decision for the championship title falls between Bayer and Bayern.
Class 2: Duel for third place – with one pursuer
Still in the relegation zone in the summer and now on the way to the Champions League. VfB Stuttgart had a brilliant first half of the season and is going into the winter break in third place. The Swabians are full of self-confidence, but also remain humble. “In our opinion, it makes little sense to create a different expectation that ignores where we come from“, said sports director Fabian Wohlgemuth. And coach Sebastian Hoeneß added: “It doesn’t help me to say something now.”
The VfB players celebrate with the fans after the win against Augsburg
Nevertheless, the situation is extremely comfortable and promising, and not just because of our own balance sheet. Because only RB Leipzig (one point behind) was able to keep up with the strong Stuttgart team. If the two teams compensate for their form and take it into the new year, they will fight for third place.
Who else can capture the duo? Probably just Borussia Dortmund. But BVB first has to solve its own problems in order to launch a major attack in the second half of the season. The runner-up is already six points behind fourth place and is in danger of missing the Champions League for the first time since seventh place in the 2014/15 season.
Class 3: Half the league in midfield
Europa League, Conference League, a place in the middle of nowhere – that’s exactly what it’s all about for nine teams. It is an enormous success for two of these nine teams in particular that they have managed to get promoted to this company. 1. FC Heidenheim, along with Darmstadt 98, was considered the number one candidate for relegation, and the team of Ewig coach Frank Schmidt (who has been coaching the professionals since 2007) were only given a few chances in their Bundesliga premiere.
The truth after 16 match days: Heidenheim is in ninth place and even in the first half of the table. “This is sensational. Few people believed we could do that, but we worked our way into the Bundesliga and learned something new in every game“, said Schmidt. His team won the last three games of the year.
Patrick Stricker, Sportschau, December 21, 2023 8:09 a.m
Despite the final defeat in Leverkusen (4-0), VfL Bochum is also more than satisfied going into the winter break. Coach Thomas Letsch’s team only celebrated their first win of the season at the beginning of November, and it turned out to be a real winner. Since then, Bochum got eleven points in seven games and shot themselves out of the bottom of the table. The lead over the relegation places is already six points.
On the other hand, the mood is somewhat different at Werder Bremen (like Bochum 16 points), Borussia Mönchengladbach (17 points) and VfL Wolfsburg (19), all of whom have bigger goals than simply having nothing to do with relegation. But above all, the lack of consistency ensured that these teams are a bit far from meeting their expectations. Instead, Eintracht Frankfurt, TSG Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg are the biggest contenders for the European Cup, each with at least four points ahead of the rest of the midfield.
Class 4: Relegation battle in a small company
It will probably surprise few people that Darmstadt is last. And yet the newcomer is the basement team where the atmosphere is by far the best. Unlike 1. FC Köln and Mainz 05 (all three only have ten points), there are no personnel discussions, unlike Union Berlin (also only has 13 points), where the coach has already been changed, there were no discussions. There was also an encouraging end to the year. “This will give us a lot of strength for the tasks that lie ahead of us. I am firmly convinced of this“said coach Torsten Lieberknecht after the draw at Hoffenheim (3:3).
Andrea Oster / Anne van Eickels, Sportschau, December 21, 2023 9:37 a.m
Darmstadt is starting the new year positively and has hardly anything to lose – but things are completely different with the three competitors. Union gave itself a little breathing room with the victory in the direct duel against Cologne (2-0), but the move from the Champions League to the 2nd league is still looming.
Especially since there is currently little prospect that the quartet will manage to drag other teams down into the relegation vortex. The teams don’t score enough points for that. With their average points of 0.625, Darmstadt, Cologne and Mainz would not have had a chance of saving themselves from relegation even in the 2013/14 season. With 27 points, Hamburger SV had fewer points than ever before for 16th place. If the Kellerkinder cannot raise their level significantly, it will only be a matter of who is the least unsuccessful.