BERLIN (Dow Jones)–World trade is treading water in May. The development of large economies is characterized by only moderate changes in imports and exports (compared to the previous month, price and seasonally adjusted). This is shown by the latest data update of the Kiel Trade Indicator, as reported by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Accordingly, world trade is likely to fall by 0.3 percent compared to the previous month, adjusted for price and seasonal effects. However, the number of containers shipped is increasing worldwide.
For Germany, the Kiel Trade Indicator shows an increase in exports of 1.5 percent and a decrease in imports of 0.7 percent. The EU values pointed to a red zero of minus 0.2 percent for exports and an increase of 1.3 percent for imports. US trade saw a 1.8 percent month-on-month drop in exports and a small 0.5 percent increase in imports. The figures for China are positive for both exports with a plus of 1.6 percent and imports with a plus of 0.9 percent.
“Both global trade as a whole and trade in major economies developed more or less sideways in May. The major recovery after the global setback in the past winter half-year is still a long time coming,” said Vincent, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator Stamer. “Adjusted for the large price fluctuations, German exports have been running sideways for two and a half years now.”
Trade with China is increasingly becoming a burden for German exports. According to the IfW, the export value of German goods to China fell by 4 percent in the period from January to April compared to the same period last year, despite recent strong trade figures. According to the Chinese statistics authority, exports from other nations there have in some cases been reduced even more significantly. “The trade statistics show that China is increasingly replacing imports from industrialized countries with its own production. This is a negative impetus for world trade,” said Stamer.
The slight positive trend in global container trade since the beginning of the year and the associated clearing of ship jams have been a ray of hope for the global exchange of goods. The trend in global container trade has been pointing upwards for a good six months, and the number of shipped containers is increasing. With 13.9 million standard containers, however, more than 1 percent less was shipped in May than a year ago.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 06, 2023 04:01 ET (08:01 GMT)