The editorial of this newspaper on Monday spoke of “slight advantage & rdquor; by Jaume Collboni. It is so because the GESOP survey says that everything is in a fist. The socialist candidate has a 21.9% vote estimate, followed by JxCat Xavier Trias (21.3%) and Ada Colau (20%).
Any of the three could be the first. And the panorama is more complex because in direct intention to vote Colau is in the lead and the CIS survey (with many interviews) left Trias behind in third place.
Some, based on 2019 -when Maragall arrived first, but Colau was mayor- look at the post-election pacts to achieve the absolute majority of 21 councilors. But given the councils provided by the polls, it seems very difficult for an alliance against the winner to bring together 21 councilors. That’s why now most likely whoever gets there first will be the next mayor. As established by law if no one meets that absolute majority.
pacts
If Collboni is the winner, a contrary pact of 21 councilors is almost impossible because a Colau-Trias unnatural entente supported by someone else. CKD? It would happen almost the same if Colau won because a PSC-Junts-PP pact sounds impossible. Feijóo’s PP voting for Sánchez’s candidate? AND nor would it be easy, although not impossible, an alliance of the entire leftwith ERC inside, against Trias.
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Trias, a friendly politician, has revived, being and not being – he was not in Manresa on Sunday at the central JxCat rally -, Puigdemont’s party, divided but resilient. Collboni has worked on his candidacy, the PSC of Illa has a favorable wind and Colau’s management is not approved by the majority who believe that Barcelona has worsened in recent years. But Colau is combative and tune in with the most militant against inequalities and climate change. She is not dead.
What is foreseeable is that whoever comes first on Sunday will be the new mayor. Then it will be essential that you achieve a broad city pact. Barcelona should not continue to be so divided. It loses strength.