A study reveals what this season of the year will be like from now on in our country
This spring has been unusual. With several episodes of exceptionally high temperatures for the time, the thermometers in various parts of Spain have set historical records. The first attribution studies confirm an unequivocal relationship between climate change and the abnormally warm episode in April in the south of our country, and highlight that this phenomenon has made it 100 times more likely. In this context, scientists warn that this situation will repeat itself and worsen between now and the end of the century. That is, the summer it is eating more and more to the spring. The final result will be advance of spring in a month, making the change of season more abrupt and raising the thermometers above 30ºC three times as many days as today. This has been shown by a recent informative article, signed by several climatologists from the Foundation for Climate Research (FIC), in which they warn of the consequences of climate change in the medium and long term for Spain. Through the data of the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), they establish a estimate of how those springs can be in nine Spanish provincesforecasting the number of days in which 30ºC will be exceededthe moment in which the first day of heat will begin and the maximum temperatures that will be recorded.
In this sense, the researchers establish that in this climatic future the different Spanish provinces will be able to register up to three times as many hot days for each passing decade. The days with a lot of heat will multiply in spring
In the case of Seville, which each decade registers some 82 days of temperatures above 30ºC in spring, will reach 346 by the end of the century in the most pessimistic emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). In the case of Madrid, from 9 days per decade to 156 at the end of the century. And in the case of Ourense, the change will be from just 2 days every ten years to a total of 56. In other words, in the springs of the future, Seville will have temperatures above 30ºC for 34 days (of each spring) of half; Madrid two weeks and Ourense five days each year. “Is triple the number of days that we have been observing historically& rdquor ;, insists Dominic Royé, climatologist and head of Data Science at the FIC.Saragossa It would go from 19 days at more than 30ºC per decade to 189, according to the same study, and always assuming an added global warming of 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. In the springs of the end of the century, Ourense it could have more hot days than those currently registered in Malaga, and Valencia could exceed the current number registered in Córdoba.
ValenciaFor its part, which has been having an average of 3 hot days in spring, it would suffer 154 days of these characteristics around 2100. Murcia it would go from 3 to 102. But that does not imply that temperatures will remain within the limit of 30ºC. “They could be above & rdquor;insists the researcher. In fact, the maximum temperatures can grow up to 35ºC in that season of the year, depending on the area. In Seville, it is expected that by the end of the century, the maximum temperature will go from the current 29.3ºC to 35.2ºC if emissions follow the current path. Even in the somewhat more optimistic emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) the temperature will reach 32.4ºC. In SaragossaFor example, the maximum temperatures in spring will go from the current 25.6ºC to 31.7ºC; and in Ourense It is estimated that it will be possible to go from the current 22.3ºC to 27.9ºC. “It is an average of the extremes & rdquor ;, insists Royé, who remembers that this is an average of the 95th percentile, so there is a 5% chance that higher values will occur.
The heat will arrive almost a month and a half before
But spring will not only be warmer, but, besides, that stifling heat will arrive much sooner. In cities like Seville, the first day of heat (above 30ºC) will be brought forward to the end of March in the most pessimistic scenario, which is almost a month and a half earlier than normal (at the beginning of May). In Madrid, for example, instead of recording these temperatures in the first week of June, they will be recorded in the last week of April. And as far as the north of Spain is concerned, in Ourense, the heat will arrive in mid-May instead of the first days of July, as is customary. “What we have experienced seemed impossible until now and in the future it will be normal,” Royé insists. As the researcher explains, in this climatic future summer will tend to “eat itself & rdquor; the halftime seasons. However, it will be spring that loses the most ground. “Winter will be shorter and it will disappear sooner, but also, the change will be increasingly abrupt & rdquor ;, he insists. Taking into account, in addition, the forecasts of possible drought, it is possible that “Southern Spain will begin to look more like North Africa & rdquor ;. The researcher insists that “we have started with the problem & rdquor; and he remembers that the drought has implications of different kinds, from economic to social. Reference study: https://sciencemediacentre.es/calor-extremo-en-abril-un-evento-extraordinario-antesala-del-futuro …….Contact of the Environment section: [email protected]