Paul Married sought in the elections of Castilla y León a personal trampoline to make it clear to all Spaniards that the cycle change. He wanted to send the message that the victory of his main internal rival, Isabel Díaz Ayusolast May, was due to the fact that the acronym of the PP have already risen from the ashes of the motion of censure and not so much to the pull of Madrid politics. However, if this Sunday night the result obtained by the popular is similar to what they had (29 attorneys) and they need a dozen Vox seats to maintain the Board, the operation to advance the elections will have been a Strategic failure that dismantles Casado’s thesis and portrays reality: Ayuso swept through it and not because of the acronym. In the event that the turnaround is total and the PP loses that feud in which they have governed for 34 years and from which José María left Aznarthe leadership de Casado would be even more touched. “It’s that I don’t even want to think about that possibility. It would be comparable to when the PSOE lost Andalusia“, laments a parliamentarian from Castilla y León.
The momentum of the Conservatives has been weakening as the electoral campaign progressed and the latest private polls run by the parties place them around the 30 procurators and not in the 40 that they said three weeks ago that they would achieve. The absolute majority is set at 41. The urgent need to reach an agreement with Vox to reach that magic figure and be able to continue presiding over the Board, gives a power to the far-right force that makes Casado’s team fear the worst. Santiago abascal has assured that this support will not be “free“And he does not rule out claiming councils if he takes out around 10 attorneys.
It would be the first time that the PP governed with Vox, since until now the radicals have facilitated investitures and budgets with their votes, but without claiming power in the regional executives or city councils. That alliance between both formations could become a slab for the PP in the next elections, since the left could once again use the extreme right as a mobilizing factor, as has happened in this campaign. The polls give Vox the most notable growth by far: they can go from 1 seat to 12 by capturing votes from the PP and also from citizens, which is struggling to maintain its presence in the Cortes (it now has 12 prosecutors and most polls give it 1). Sources from Casado’s team consider that they need a 60% participation at least to be able to reach an absolute majority with Vox.
The result will mark the short-term roadmap: the date of the elections in Andalusia and the party congress in Madrid
Moreno’s brake
The result of this Sunday will mark the PP short-term roadmap. Juanma Moreno, president of the Junta de Andalucía, already stopped the suggestions of the Genoa team in May to quickly call the elections after the success of Ayuso. He is one of the most influential barons in the party and managed to impose his criteria. “He improves every month in the internal polls. It’s incredible,” comments a party adviser familiar with the internal debate.
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Casado, in his strategy to demonstrate the change of cycle, intended that the victory in Castilla y León would soon be followed by another in Andalusia to secure that mental framework that the PSOE and Pedro Sánchez have little time left. Moreno himself spoke of advancing the elections to June or October, although the legislature ends in December, when the last four years have passed. But this Sunday’s electoral marker can alter those plans and also brings back to the spotlight a crisis voluntarily parked during the campaign: the date of the PP congress in Madrid. Ayuso began in September to demand that Genoa summon him as soon as possible so that she could take those reins and be president of the regional government and also of the party, as is the case with Alberto Núñez feijoo or Moreno himself. Married, fearful of the power of the president, he delays that decision that, starting this week, will come back to haunt him.