The direct damage from the earthquakes on February 6 of this year in Turkey can be estimated at a minimum of 34.2 billion dollars (32.3 billion euros). This is stated by the World Bank in a report published on Wednesday. The amount corresponds to 4 percent of Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP). The total amount of damage to the economy and society can be at least twice as high.
On Monday, February 6, southern Turkey and northern Syria were hit by two very strong earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5 respectively. Since then, more than 6,000 aftershocks have been measured, eight of which measured more than 5.5 and one measured 6.3. In Turkey, more than 44,000 people have died, more than 108,000 have been injured and 1.25 million have become homeless.
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The direct damage of USD 34.2 billion is an underestimate of the actual damage to the economy and society, according to the World Bank. It only concerns the costs of rebuilding homes (53 percent of the damage), factories and other real estate (28 percent) and roads and bridges (19 percent), according to existing building standards. As those standards become stricter, costs continue to rise, according to the World Bank. Moreover, the experience is that the costs of wages and materials can rise considerably in such circumstances. Based on experience with similar disasters, the final costs could be twice as high as currently estimated.
More than 105,000 homes
And that is not counting the loss of business as a result of the earthquakes and damage. The National Turkish Confederation of Enterprises gives a total estimate of $84 billion, based on the experience of the 1999 Izmit earthquake. That is about one-tenth of Turkey’s gross domestic product.
As far as can be seen now, more than 105,000 houses and apartments in the region have been severely damaged, of which 9,432 have collapsed. Fifteen hospitals and more than a hundred educational institutions were severely damaged in whole or in part. The World Bank has calculated the damage with the so-called ‘Grade’ methodology, a first, quick estimate that is standard practice in situations like this. The extent of the damage is shown by the estimate that in the hardest-hit province of Hatay, about 40 percent of all capital – houses, buildings, machines and the like – has been destroyed. destroyed or so badly damaged as to require rebuilding or replacement. The destruction is also significant in the provinces of Kahramanmaraş and Adiyaman, affecting 28 percent and 25 percent of all capital respectively. Data on the damage in northern Syria have not yet been included in these estimates.