News item | 07-11-2022 | 16:05
There are currently no concrete indications that radicalized persons are preparing an attack. There are, however, people and groups in the Netherlands who are radicalising or have been radicalized who can pose a threat to national security. A terrorist attack in the Netherlands remains conceivable. The threat level in the Netherlands is therefore set at ‘significant’ (level 3 of 5). This is stated by the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) in the Netherlands Terrorism Threat Assessment 57 (DTN57).
Nature of terrorist threat changed
The threat level has not changed since 2019. The NCTV does note that the nature of the terrorist threat has changed in recent years: the threat in and against the Netherlands has become more versatile and diffuse in recent years. Jihadism remains the main terrorist threat, but the threat from the jihadist movement in the Netherlands and neighboring countries has decreased over the past decade. With the rise of right-wing extremist accelerationism, terrorist attacks based on this inherently violent ideology have also become conceivable. In addition, belief in conspiracy theories within the radical anti-government protest can give rise to extremist and even terrorist acts.
Jihadist movement Netherlands
Due to its relatively large size and degree of organisation, the Dutch jihadist movement continues to form the main source of terrorist threat to the Netherlands. The NCTV does state that repressive government action and the lack of mobilizing themes are causing stagnation and relative inactivity of the movement. Nevertheless, some Dutch jihadists still intend to carry out an attack, although there are no indications that they are currently planning to do so. The development of the movement remains unpredictable. It is possible that the threat may increase again under the influence of, for example, mobilizing events or because terrorist convicted persons are released from detention.
Right-wing extremism
As previously established by the NCTV, so-called accelerationism remains the main right-wing extremist threat of violence. This movement promotes terrorist violence as a legitimate means of achieving the ideal of a white ethno-state. One of the pillars of accelerationism is the so-called repopulation theory, a conspiracy theory that is increasingly becoming part of the public debate in the Netherlands. According to accelerationists, the alleged overpopulation can be countered with violence and hastened a race war. Although accelerationist attacks in Europe have so far been rare and accelerationists express themselves mainly online, the inherently violent ideology makes an attack from this movement conceivable.
Anti-government extremism
In the Netherlands, a group of anti-government extremists is targeting the government and other institutions based on a fundamental mistrust, anger and sense of injustice. This group arose as a radical undercurrent of the corona protest and is increasingly focusing on other topics, such as the nitrogen issue and the farmers’ protest. Some of them embrace conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theories undermine public confidence in the institutions of the democratic legal order. The dissemination and normalization of such theories can give rise to extremist and even terrorist acts.