Ukraine wants to recapture the city of Kherson and deal a serious blow to Russia. The capture of the city, however, becomes a heathen job. And how do you drive out the enemy without destroying the city?
The attacks launched by the Ukrainian army on Monday to retake the city of Kherson did not come out of the blue. Autumn is approaching and swampy terrain does not favor the Ukrainians, who have to travel miles to get to Kherson. The ground is now hard enough for tanks and armored vehicles to advance.
The Ukrainian army, which claims to have broken through the first Russian defense lines in various places, is said to have taken about five villages, according to various reports. These are located about 20 to 30 kilometers from Kherson. The military hopes that the devastating rocket attacks of recent weeks on Russian supply lines, ammunition depots and command centers will enable a rapid advance.
If the Ukrainians are indeed at the gates of Kherson, the question arises: how do you take a city surrounded by a sea of territory occupied by the Russians? About 20 to 30 thousand Russian soldiers, including those of the elite VDV troops, defend the city. You don’t just drive them away.
Insight into Ukrainian strategy
US military officials on Monday gave an insight into Ukraine’s strategy to retake the first occupied city from the Russians. Kyiv wouldn’t want a devastating city war at all. The first option would be to cut off the Russians in Kherson from the rest of Russian territory and then force them to surrender. Due to the elimination of several bridges over the Dnipro River, Russia is already having difficulties supplying its units.
Before that happens, the Ukrainians have to occupy about 20 kilometers of territory to the edges of Kherson. However, this advance makes them vulnerable to Russian artillery. ‘The terrain is flat, it is a delta with many rivers and streams’, says Brigadier General Retd Ruud Vermeulen (73), former battalion commander with the Air Mobile Brigade and teacher at the Higher Military School. “By spreading out, as far apart as possible, Ukrainian units become less vulnerable to Russian attacks.”
‘A good chance,’ thinks the Pentagon
The US, Pentagon officials tell news site Politico, think Ukraine has “a good chance” of retaking occupied territory. But what happens if that humiliating Russian surrender does not happen? To bomb the city with brute force, as the Russians have done to other cities, is out of the question for the Ukrainian army. Then all that remains is a classic city war: entering Kherson and fighting from building to building.
‘That is a prayer without end’, says Vermeulen, who spent years working on war strategies to fight a battle in a city. According to him, Ukraine should not be tempted into a city war. “Those house-to-house fights will take a lot of combat power and a lot of deaths.”
That could cost Ukraine dearly later in the war, because immediately deployable units with well-trained soldiers are crucial. Vermeulen: ‘You actually have to let the Russian units bleed to death. Cut off the city completely and stop their supplies, especially from the river.’
Troops on the east side of the city crucial
Crucial to this, he says, is that Ukraine is keeping Russian troops on the east side of the river under considerable pressure. Those troops are important for supplying the Russians. Attacks on important targets, such as airfields and supply lines, could cause problems for Russian units on the western side. ‘In addition, they are then forced to come to the aid of their colleagues in the east. This will make the intake of Kherson easier. But if the Russians don’t surrender, at some point Ukraine will have to go into the city and take buildings step by step.’
The former brigadier general thinks that the party that is mentally strongest wins out in Kherson. Vermeulen: ‘And the Russians have a lot of problems in this area, as the past six months have shown.’ According to him, the Ukrainians should make the losses to the Russians so great that it affects their will to continue fighting. The Russians have already watched as the bridges over the river and other targets were destroyed with the US Himars missiles. Partisans and special forces have also caused major destruction.
Vermeulen believes it is possible that the battle for Kherson, partly because of the presence of Russian airborne troops in the city, could last until winter. ‘The troops on the west side will cross the river if necessary and fight their way out of the city,’ he argues. ‘We, as the Dutch army, would also do that if you were cut off. If that happens, it will be a major mental blow to Russia both militarily and mentally.”