It’s hard to accept because the great excitement of 2012-2017 –serious error of independence Y mismanagement of Madrid– was so exorbitant that a train crash was reached that benefited no one. Now, after some deflation and pardons, the conflict has not disappeared, but there is a notable drop in tension.
This week three facts corroborate it. The most relevant is that, despite Aragonès’ great irritation over the CNI wiretapping scandal, the relationship between the ERC and the Government of Madrid has recovered with the new meeting of the dialogue table. The background is that neither the ERC nor the PSOE is interested in advancing the elections and that the PP -perhaps pregnant with Vox- can win them. In the reality, ERC softens the objectives of the dialogue table -which should only deal with amnesty and self-determination- and goes on to negotiate specific things within the constitutional framework. It achieves greater protection for Catalan and presses for legal changes that benefit the independentists who are still awaiting trial.
The radical independence movement will say that ERC betrays the 2017 referendum for a plate of lentils and the most rigorous constitutionalism that Sánchez sells himself to continue in La Moncloa. Everything is debatable, but sacred principles led us to a dead end. And that concrete things are negotiated within the framework of the rule of law is fine. It is not convenient for anyone sensible that a conflict that broke out five years ago is perpetuated for years and years. But let’s not sell cat for hare: there has been no conversion of anyone, simply the intensity of the conflict is reduced.
The second fact is that Laura Borràs has been removed from her duties as President of the Parliament, having been opened oral proceedings for prevarication. The Parliamentary table, with the votes of the ERC, the PSC and the CUP, has considered that article 25.4 of the regulation, introduced years ago by the independence movement, had to be applied. Normal, but there are two consequences. One, it is once again highlighted that the independence unit is increasingly limited by partisan interests. Two, the most radical sector of Junts, headed by Laura Borràs, has had a strong defeat. And perhaps this way the most realistic tendency of Junts will have freer hands.
Can Junts, without Laura Borràs and without the tutelage of ex-president Torra, return to pragmatism? It can and there have already been discreet agreements -for example on TV-3- with the PSC. The return of Junts to a certain ‘peix al cove’ would further relax political life and the loss of strength of ‘laurismo’ paves the way.
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The third fact is CEO survey (the CIS of the Generalitat). Those in favor of independence fell from 44 to 41% while those against rose from 48 to 52%. A distance of 11 points determines the day to day. And within the independence movement, the unilateralists are only 11%. They even lose among Junts voters (43% against 47%). It is not a miracle, something will have to do the outstretched hand policy and not paying for the conflict between Pedro Sánchez and the PSC.
And in the survey, the PSC of Salvador Illa increases its advantage over ERC, both in the regional elections and in the legislative elections. The PSC, unlike the PSOE, the polls are not doing badly. Perhaps because in Catalonia the idea is prevailing that the eternal conflict harms more than it benefits. Countries do not become great with dreams, but with sensible agreements. Oh!, and Feijóo’s PP recovers at the expense of Vox. Without Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo he breathes better.