As expected, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not come empty-handed on their first wartime visit to Ukraine on Thursday. In fact, Zelensky will receive the top prize with a view to future accession to the EU.
“My colleagues and I came to Kiev today with a clear message: Ukraine is part of the European family,” Chancellor Scholz said solemnly in Kiev. For the pro-European government in Kiev, the words are not only of great symbolic significance, they are also a breakthrough after weeks of reluctance among key member states over Ukraine’s turbo-candidate.
Olaf Scholz arrives at the train station in Kiev
ANP / Associated Press
Doubts
Germany and France in particular had doubts about the haste at the time of the clash of arms. Zelensky, who enjoys popularity in the two most powerful EU countries, has exerted maximum pressure in recent weeks to rally support for his cause.
Brussels is fully cooperating. A staunch supporter, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been working overtime with her bureaucratic apparatus to issue an opinion on Ukraine’s application before next week’s EU summit. There, the member states must unanimously agree on this future perspective.
Brussels is expected to make a positive recommendation for the candidacy on Friday. Moldova can probably also count on warm support, subject to conditions. For Georgia, the odds seem a little less favourable.
Veto
The fact that the three largest economies are already giving their blessings before the documents are published makes it even more difficult for other doubting member states – including the Netherlands – to step on the brakes. No one wants to be accused of being an ‘opponent’ of Ukraine at the EU summit. The chance therefore seems small that someone will veto.
However, the speed of the discussion will depend on how exactly the European Commission writes the advice. Is it a positive recommendation subject to conditions or can Ukraine be granted unconditional status? The latter would be unthinkable without the war.
Moreover, the question is what the route will be for the coming years: candidate-membership does not automatically mean that negotiations can start. Apart from the symbolic and geopolitical value – we do not belong to Russia – it is still questionable what it will do for a country at war: before Ukraine can really join the country bloc, we are easily ten years further. Turkey has been in the waiting room since 1999.
Community
French President Macron will therefore argue at the EU summit for the creation of a new kind of ‘political community’ in Europe, which will accommodate countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, but also the United Kingdom. That club should only focus on safety, energy, transport and free movement.
Mario Draghi arrives at his hotel in Kiev
ANP / EPA
Earlier in the day, the four men visited Irpin, the Kiev suburb that suffered badly at the start of the war. The leaders were impressed by the havoc they saw there. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi does not want to leave the destroyed playgrounds and kindergartens like this. “We will rebuild everything.”
On Thursday, Moscow reacted mainly with mockery to the visit of the three EU leaders to Ukraine. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev threw a childish message into the world: “Fans of frogs, liverwurst and spaghetti like to visit Kiev. Useless.”